The threat of recognizing the independence of territories under the control of the separatists in the east is likened to a double-edged sword capable of blackmailing or destroying the resumption of the Minsk peace process. Ukraine that Moscow is shaking.
At the time of crisis between Russia and the West is on its border, Russian lawmakers on Tuesday called on Vladimir Putin to recognize the independence of pro-Russian territories in the Donbass industrial valley bordering Russia: Donetsk and Luhansk, which have declared themselves “democracies.”
In eight years, the war between Kiev and pro-Russian separatists backed by Moscow has left more than 14,000 dead. The intensity of the conflict has decreased significantly since the Minsk agreements in 2015, which are the subject of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine under Franco-German mediation.
The settlement of the conflict is at an impasse
The political settlement of the conflict is at an impasse and each camp accuses the other of blocking the way to peace.
A Russian recognition of the territories of the separatists would mean the end of this process, because the Minsk agreements are precisely aimed at returning these areas to Ukrainian sovereignty.
“Moscow would have full responsibility for the destruction of the Minsk agreements,” a Ukrainian diplomat told AFP.
“It would be an unmanageable situation, a form of unarmed attack and unarmed disarmament of Ukraine’s unity and integrity,” said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian.
The scenario has a precedent: in 2008, the Kremlin recognized the independence of two pro-Russian, separatist “republics” of Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, following a lightning war against Tbilissi (Georgia), a former Soviet republic that, like the pro-Soviet to join NATO.
Vladimir Putin responded to the call of his deputies by giving the assurance that he wants to “keep” the Minsk agreements “until the end”.
He also stressed that “the vast majority” of Russians sympathize with the people of Donbass, “Russian-speakers who Putin claims are victims of a” genocide “orchestrated by Kiev. And Moscow, further complicating the situation, has distributed 600,000 Russian passports to the two self-proclaimed “democracies”.
According to analysts, threatening recognition, Moscow initially wants to tell Kiev that the time has come for retreats.
“It’s a way of saying ‘our patience has its limits’ and that if the Minsk agreements are boycotted and not implemented, then we will have to use other methods,” said Fyodor Lukanov, a Russian political scientist. as broadcast by the Athenian News Agency
The focus is on Kiev’s reluctance to impose a special regime and hold elections in Donbass, arguing that Moscow-led military forces must leave the region before leaving. For Kiev, Moscow seeks to permanently consolidate its influence on Ukrainian territory.
However, German Chancellor Olaf Solz insisted earlier this week that Kiev should draft the necessary bills as soon as possible, assuring that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had pledged to do so.
“Moscow is blocking the implementation of the Minsk reforms and agreements”
Kiev, for its part, assures that Moscow is blocking the implementation of these reforms and the Minsk agreements, because Russia seeks to impose a direct dialogue between Kiev and the separatists.
The Ukrainian authorities refuse such a dialogue, arguing that Moscow is the instigator of this war, the conductor of the separatist orchestra and not the mediator.
“Sooner or later, Ukraine will introduce bills,” one of the Ukrainian negotiators, Sergei Garmas, told AFP, “but given the obstacles posed by Russia’s claims, it will take years to process.”
If the Kremlin raises pressure, it is not yet ready to sign the death deed of the peace processaccording to Fyodor Lukyanov.
Moscow’s ultimate goal is to push the West to finally brake on NATO enlargement
In his opinion, Russia can not be deprived of “a lever of influence on the future of Ukraine and, more broadly, on the issue of European security.”
Because its ultimate goal Moscow is to pressure the West to permanently slow down NATO enlargement to Ukraine.
Amid concerns about a Russian invasion, diplomatic efforts have intensified in recent weeks to resume peace talks, with meetings in Paris and Berlin.
And to this day, all sides in the conflict agree on one thing: there has been “no result.”
Source: News Beast
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