Crude oil faces winds against CTA while OPEC+ tests market resilience – TDS

Crude markets only have a very narrow path to higher prices. In the imminent term, CTA’s sale activity will weigh on the price action at the OPEC meeting. This sale activity will probably be less significant than what we expect in the gold markets, but should weigh on prices anyway, says Daniel Ghald, senior strategist of TDS commodities.

Vulnerable crude oil prices despite the strong demand as the supply returns

“Ultimately, the crude markets will fight to absorb additional barrels of the OPEC+ in the coming months, what we argue reflects a strategic change in the policy driven by an attempt to) to prove the production of the schist of the US; demand.”

“The demand for energy remains resistant, the production of the schist of the US is reaching its maximum point, Venezuela’s export licenses have expired and geopolitical risks around Iran are still high, all of which will probably act as a damping before lower prices.”

“Even so, the OPEC+ was finally forced to this strategic change and feels strengthened to bring these barrels back for seasonally favorable months; the markets will fight to absorb these barrels, particularly after the summer months. The road to sustainably high prices remains extremely narrow.”

Source: Fx Street

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