D. Roche (Independent Strategy): Up to $ 120 crude if Russia invades Ukraine

Oil will “definitely” hit $ 120 a barrel and the world economy will “change radically” if Russia invades Ukraine, predicts veteran strategic analyst David Roche, chairman of the Independent Strategy.

Moscow has categorically denied plans to invade neighboring Ukraine, but has amassed about 130,000 troops, tanks and missiles and even transported new batches of blood supplies to the border.

The Kremlin demands that Ukraine never be allowed to join NATO, while urging the alliance to limit its presence in Eastern Europe.

Speaking on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” show on Monday, Roche noted the uncertainty surrounding Russia’s next steps, which he described as a “ghost in the room” – which has the potential to dramatically disrupt global markets.

“I think that in the event of an invasion of Ukraine and sanctions that would be Russia’s access to foreign exchange, messaging systems and so on, or would prevent it from exporting its goods, whether oil or gas or coal, I think then. we would definitely see oil prices at $ 120 [το βαρέλι]”, He stated characteristically.

Brent crude for April delivery traded slightly lower at $ 90.50 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, but crude oil prices have been trading sharply lower since the beginning of the year, trading below $ 80 a barrel.

At the same time, Roche estimated that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would have wider economic consequences, warning that many market participants underestimate the possible consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis.

“I think most investors see Mr Putin as a musical background, which I’m sure Mr Putin does not agree with,” he told CNBC.

Roche argued that if Putin made “some dramatic move in Ukraine”, the US and its allies were likely to impose tough sanctions on Russia and that European stock markets and the outlook for the global economy would “change radically”.

It is noted that American politicians have stated that they are planning the “mother of sanctions” against Russia with the aim of defending Ukraine, which will “cripple the [ρωσική] The British and German ministers have also warned that there will be economic consequences for Moscow if it takes any aggressive action against Ukraine.

However, some experts estimate that Russia is prepared to suffer “real economic damage” and total war in order to achieve its political goals in Ukraine.

A poll of 5,529 people in seven EU member states by the European External Relations Council in late January found that a majority of respondents in all countries surveyed believed that Russia would invade Ukraine. The majority of respondents also believe that NATO and the EU should defend Ukraine if Russia invades.