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De-escalation trends in the energy markets – ‘Dive’ 20% natural gas

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De-escalation trends in the energy markets – ‘Dive’ 20% natural gas

LAST UPDATE: 14.40

Concerns about the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine appear to be waning, as global markets appear to be showing signs of de-escalation in recent developments.

In this climate, oil, after continuing its upward rally in the morning to $ 131 a barrel, as US President Joe Biden announced yesterday that the US will ban the import of Russian crude, lost momentum in the course of trading and is now moving slightly – for the data of the day – declining.

So after the new escalation, its slow prices now show some downward trends with the West Texas Intermediate delivery in April falling by 3% to $ 120.05 a barrel in New York, while earlier it had reached $ 126.84 .

Respectively, the Brent delivery in May reached $ 131.64 per barrel in the morning, but in the course of the day it deleted its profits and is now moving down 2.45% to $ 126.5 per barrel.

Futures contracts in New York have jumped more than 35% since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine almost two weeks ago, reaching their highest level since 2008 on Tuesday.

The UK has also said it will phase out crude imports from Russia by the end of the year, with Shell Plc and BP Plc shutting down new markets, but other European countries are reluctant to commit to similar action.

The invasion has disrupted commodity markets from metals to grain, and has sparked concerns that the global economy is heading for a shock as countries recover from the coronavirus pandemic.

Banks and traders are forecasting even higher crude prices and already tight energy markets are being pressured, as Russia is a key part of the OPEC + alliance and a major producer of crude and petroleum products such as diesel.

For its part, however, Europe does not appear to be including energy products in its sanctions against Moscow.

“Europe is not following the example of the United States, simply because it can not yet. , says an analyst at Oanda Asia Pacific.

“Dive” 20% for natural gas

At the same time, gas futures in Europe are showing a significant de-escalation trend, as there is no intention on the part of the Old Continent to impose an embargo on Russia’s energy products.

Thus, the European gas contract at the Amsterdam junction (TTF) after a day of extreme volatility yesterday, today is losing 20% and its price is set to 170.9 euros the megawatt hour.

Despite the fact that the Commission stated that it would reduce the flow of Russian gas, on the one hand it did not give any indication that it intends to impose any kind of sanctions, on the other hand German Chancellor Solz told Uniper SE that it could further increase its imports from Russia. meet the demand in the country.

As Uniper CEO Klaus-Dieter Maubach said yesterday, Germany is asking the utility company to maintain energy flows and guarantee the country’s supply, while there are no indications that it should stop supplying gas from Russia.

As Tom Marzec-Manser, ICIS London’s head of natural gas analysis, points out, “The European Commission has not indicated its intention to impose sanctions on oil and gas imports, and this will further allay Russia’s concerns about retaliation.”

He added that “the market has already assessed the possibility of cutting off gas supplies from Russia”, which means that the more the possibility is removed, the more the pressure on its price will escalate.

It is noted, however, that the Commission has stated that it will reduce Russian gas imports to Europe by 100 billion cubic meters by the end of the year, as Vice President F. Timmermans and Energy Commissioner K. announced on Tuesday. Simpson.

“It’s difficult but it is possible if we want to move faster than ever before to decoupling from Russian gas,” Timmermans said, adding that Russian gas imports would be cut by about two-thirds.

About 60 billion cubic meters will come from LNG imports, while the rest of the reduction will come from biogas, hydrogen, Renewable Energy and energy savings.

Source: Capital

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