Decline in births: is Italy disappearing?

This article is published in number 17 of Vanity Fair on newsstands until April 25, 2023

We are at risk. The decline in the population is becoming more and more significant and the falling birth rate in our country threatens the socio-economic structure. The last one report released by Istat and relating to 2022, it photographs a historical record in terms of births, which fell for the first time since the unification of Italy below 400 thousand. If we consider that the deaths were 713 thousand e the newborns only 393 thousand, the natural balance is -320 thousand: less than 7 newborns and more than 12 deaths per thousand inhabitants. “The normal population pyramid is inverting,” he explains Eugene Gaudiopresident of the Rome Sapienza Foundation and promoter of awareness-raising initiatives on the subject. «In the past we had four children, two parents, a grandfather. Now we have a son, two parents, four grandparents, a great-grandfather. It is a society that will not be able to stay in balance, both at the social security level – given that the work base decreases – and at the social-health level, since the need to protect the health of Italians who are increasingly over 65 is growing. The active part of the population will be missing or it will be very small. And, as is already happening, we will need an immigration that can fill the gaps left».

Among the causes also stands out the progressive aging of the female population in the ages conventionally considered reproductive, ie between 15 and 49 years of age. In 2022, the average number of children per woman was 1.24given that it reconfirms the downward trend in our country, where themean age of delivery is stable at 32.4 years. The region with the highest fertility is Trentino-Alto Adige, with 1.51 children per woman, followed by Sicily (1.35) and Campania (1.33). On the other hand, fewer births in Molise and Basilicata (1.09 children per woman), but Sardinia stands out above all which, with a value of 0.95, is for the third consecutive year the only region where the fecundity is less than one.

However, the drop in the birth rate also seems to be influenced by cultural change, as well as economic and work factors. It highlights it Donatella Possematopresident of the association Business for Life and founder of Holy Family Nursing Home in Rome, a single-specialist obstetrics and gynecology clinic: «There is a tendency to increasingly postpone the moment of procreation. But at 40, even if the woman physically looks 30, fertility is no longer what it was before », she underlines. «Aid could come from welfare interventions that protect working women, for example through the creation of more nurseries within companies. Today’s politics aims to solve the problems of the here and now. But, to reverse the falling birth rate, programs that last for years are needed. Let’s hope that a female prime minister will also take charge of topics of this kind”.

The worrying situation in Italy even prompted a comment from US businessman Elon Musk. His recent reply tweet to a user who recalled the drop in our birth rates is the quintessence of the question: “Italy is disappearing,” wrote the CEO of Tesla and Twitter. Let’s hope it doesn’t become a prophecy.

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