Democrat Phil Murphy wins contest in New Jersey, says CNN projection

New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy became the first Democratic governor in more than four decades to win re-election at the Garden State, according to a projection by the CNN this Wednesday (4), barely surviving a tougher-than-expected dispute that dragged on until election day.

Murphy’s victory over Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli, while small, challenged the state’s tendency to vote for the party outside the White House in its out-of-year gubernatorial races. Virginia — the only other with gubernatorial elections in odd years — maintained that historic pattern on Tuesday, electing Republican Glenn Youngkin in a resounding blow to Democrats who had made recent gains in the state. But like Virginia, the results in New Jersey – another state that President Joe Biden carried in double digits in 2020 – are warning Democrats that they will fight to keep the suburbs in next year’s midterm elections.

Biden defeated Donald Trump by nearly 16 points at Garden State. The gubernatorial race polls suggested the results could be more limited, but as Tuesday night progressed, it became clear that Murphy was dramatically underperforming the president, despite having more positive approval ratings in the state. than Biden.

As the Democrats did in Virginia, the New Jersey campaign has consistently sought to tie the Republican opponent to the figure of Donald Trump, who remains deeply unpopular in the state. But those sentiments, some Democrats feared, may have been undermined by falling state approval ratings for the Biden administration.

Republicans in New Jersey also followed a Virginia-like manual, with Ciattarelli – a businessman and former state legislator – keeping Trump at bay and instead hammering Murphy about taxes and what he argued were the dire effects of pandemic response from the business democrat.

Murphy’s narrow victory can be seen as a verdict on his and other Democratic leaders’ commitment to masking and vaccinating the mandates, which the governor defended in a state that suffered some 28,000 Covid-19 deaths.

Before the race was called, an adviser to Murphy told the CNN that while it’s too early to diagnose in detail the drop in Democratic enthusiasm compared to its 2017 election, robust turnout in areas opposed to some of the governor’s tougher measures may have messed his way.

“You’ve seen an astronomical turnout in places like Ocean (County) where people revolted over masks and vaccines,” said the consultant. “What you see is that people who are concerned about vaccines and masks are more likely to vote for it than people who are happy with their progress.”

The final poll from the Monmouth University race showed Murphy with an advantage ranging from 8 to 14 points, depending on the different models of who voted. These numbers represented a modest narrowing of the race, in which taxes – an issue Ciattarelli led – were listed as the main issue. But Murphy’s lead on who voters trust most to deal with the pandemic was significantly greater, 45% to 26%, a gap that has remained consistent since the summer. The Democrat also had a sizable lead in an issue that rocked the Virginia dispute — education and schools — beating Ciattarelli by 15 points.

But the Monmouth poll also identified an enthusiasm gap that may have affected Murphy, with 38% of Republicans who identify themselves as Republicans saying they are more enthusiastic than usual to vote in this election, compared with 24% of Democrats who do. identify.

Murphy was saved, in the end, by the overwhelming advantage registered Democrats enjoy over registered Republicans — more than a million in New Jersey, although voters there have shown a willingness to support moderate Republican candidates such as former two-term governors. Christie Todd Whitman and, before Murphy’s election in 2017, Chris Christie.

Murphy’s aides remained confident throughout the campaign, and on election night, that the governor’s popularity would lead to a second term. His approval ratings consistently surpassed those of the president – ​​52% compared to 43% for Biden in the Monmouth poll.

“We’re going to be re-elected – or not – by our own weight here,” a Murphy aide told CNN before the polls close. Still, the governor kept Biden close by, welcoming him to the election campaign and keeping in touch until the eve of the vote, when the president – ​​in the middle of a trip abroad – called and spoke with the governor from according to a source familiar with the discussion.

Murphy, a former Goldman Sachs executive and ambassador to Germany who previously served as finance chairman of the Democratic National Committee, also faced a who’s who of national Democratic heavyweights. Biden, former President Barack Obama and Independent Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont were the main events for him to try to expel grassroots Democratic voters.

Obama, speaking in Newark last month, singled out Ciattarelli for having previously spoken at an “against theft” rally, and later claimed he did not know the focus of the event. “Apparently Phil’s opponent says, well, he didn’t know it was a rally to nullify the results of the last election. Brother, come on,” Obama said. “When you’re standing in front of a sign that says ‘Stop Robbery,’ and there’s a guy in the crowd waving a Confederate flag, you know it’s not a neighborhood barbecue.”

Ciattarelli’s camp, in response, pointed to his earlier statements claiming that Biden won the election — comments that he was attacked by other Republicans during the gubernatorial primaries.

Ciattarelli sought to downplay Trump’s conspiracy theories about electoral fraud – at least as far as his own perspectives were concerned.

“Don’t let anyone stay home because they think we can’t win or because they’re rigged,” Ciattarelli said at an event last week. “It’s not rigged here in New Jersey. We can win this race.”

Ciattarelli did not name Trump, who did not appear on the trail in New Jersey, but the comment underscored the difficult balance that Republican candidates must strike in the states Biden won to bring Trump’s diehards to the polls without alienating undecided voters in the suburbs rejected by the first. President’s behavior and rhetoric. Youngkin’s victory in Virginia and Ciattarelli’s narrow defeat in New Jersey may have helped shape a plan for GOP candidates in elections next year.

In their second debate, in mid-October, a moderator pressed Ciattarelli about his view of Trump and whether he would accept the former president’s support and campaign alongside him. The Republican candidate, who criticized Trump but backed him last year, suggested he had no plans to call on the former president.

“I go there and campaign alone,” Ciattarelli replied. “I’m going to win my own election.”