By David Ax
The Ukrainian Air Force is desperately inferior both numerically and in equipment to its most likely enemy, the Russian Air Force.
Kiev can at best assemble only 125 first-line fighter jets. Of these, 71 are militant. Of the fighter jets, the 34 active Su-27 Flanker twin engines and their experienced pilots are the most likely to cause some damage to the bombing campaign that could precede a wider Russian attack in the Donbas region of Ukraine.
The best Su-27s and the most well-trained pilots belong to a single two-platoon brigade based in Mirgorod, in north-central Ukraine, east of the Dnieper River.
If Russian President Vladimir Putin decides to escalate the eight-year conflict in eastern Ukraine, watch out for the 831st Airborne Brigade in Mirgorod.
If the brigade’s Su-27s get up to meet the Russian aircraft, it is a sign that the Ukrainian air force – which has been out of campaign in Donbass since suffering heavy casualties in 2015 – intends to fight.
In any case, the battle can be short. Against the six dozen Ukrainian fighters, the Russian air force can develop several hundred newer and more capable aircraft.
The 831st Brigade has a long history. It was formed in 1941 as part of the Soviet air force and fought German forces along the Baltic front.
In 1991, Ukraine inherited from the collapsing USSR the Su-27S brigade and interceptors and the Su-27UB two-seater training, the oldest of which was only six years old. In 2002, a Ukrainian Su-27 crashed in an air show in Lviv, killing 77 people – the worst air show disaster in history.
After sales and sales, the Kiev Air Force came up with a two-brigade structure for its approximately 55 Su-27s.
The 831st with its two degrees had the most Flanker. The 39th Brigade, at Oserne Air Base west of the Dnieper, had a squadron of slightly newer Su-27Ps. Ukrainian industry has developed a limited upgrade program to bring selected Flankers to the M1 standard with a new flight recorder and electronics improvements.
Most importantly, the Sukhois began undergoing a $ 3 million maintenance program per aircraft to fly by 2030.
But the pace of upgrades was slow. And over the course of 20 years, the Flanker’s Ukrainian fleet has steadily shrunk to just about a dozen operational aircraft. These few fighters were unable to stop the Russians and Russian-backed separatists from occupying the Crimean peninsula in Ukraine in 2014 and much of Donbass the following year.
After a series of shootings over Donbass in 2014 and 2015, in which about 60 Ukrainians were killed, Kiev withdrew its aircraft from the war zone. The fighting continued. The air force, however, did not play a significant role.
This does not mean that the 831st is not capable. The brigade continued to grow as more upgraded aircraft arrived from the aircraft repair plant in Zaporizhia. Today it has up to 25 Su-27s, most of which are Su-27S. About a third have received the M1 upgrade.
When the Ukrainian Air Force participates in international exercises and air demonstrations, the 831st usually leads. The brigade hosted U.S. Air Force F-15 aircraft from the California National Air Force in 2011 and 2018. A two-seater Flanker crashed during the last exercise, killing the Ukrainian pilot and a U.S. officer in the back seat.
The two Flanker brigades have 34 active aircraft. About a dozen others are under repair. In addition to defending eastern Ukraine, the 831st also maintains a detachment of three Air Force aircraft in Odessa, on the Black Sea coast.
In November, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense celebrated the 831st Brigade anniversary. “The main areas of official activity have remained unchanged: the combat duty for the air defense of important state facilities and the constant readiness to carry out the assigned tasks.” The following month, the brigade was trained in night missions.
At supersonic speeds, 60-mile radar and R-27 air-to-air missiles, the Kiev Su-27, despite its advanced age, is still one of the most powerful interceptors in the region. But this does not mean that they will last long against the Russians.
It is not even entirely clear that Ukraine’s leaders will risk losing them in a battle they rightly believe they can not win.
Source: Capital
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