Disruption of the international economy threatens Brazil by 2023

Disruption of the international economy threatens Brazil by 2023

The Brazilian economy is on track to have the best performance of the last four years in 2022, discounting the effect of the pandemic.

Data from the Focus Bulletin, released last Monday (29), show a revision of GDP growth to 2% and a drop in inflation, which should be around 6%. The job market is also buoyant, and even public accounts are doing well, with great chances of closing the year with a primary surplus for the first time since 2013.

This picture, however, dissolves at the turn of the year. The revision that took GDP up in 2022, for example, was the same as for next year, only with the arrow pointing down. The trajectory of the country’s economic activity sees a turbulent horizon, viewed from two angles.

On the one hand, the domestic scenario is one of insecurity about the next government’s fiscal policy, as campaign promises only grow — and budget space does not. The full impact of the Central Bank’s monetary tightening cycle, which began in March of this year and is expected to end within the next few months, will also dampen activity to ensure a drop in inflation.

On the other hand, the foreign scenario is one of dismay: the breakdown of the international economy is no longer a mere threat, but a concrete reality, as is the case with the economy of the eurozone countries and the United States. It is from this perspective that the episode of CNN Money this Tuesday turns, seeking to answer questions such as: what will be the intensity of this disarrangement? Who will be most affected by the energy crisis and recession in rich countries? What recession will this be?

Presented by Thais Herédia and Priscila Yazbek, CNN Money presents a balance of news issues that influence markets, finances and the direction of society and power dynamics in Brazil and worldwide.

Source: CNN Brasil