The dollar closed this Wednesday (23) at R$ 5.84, the lowest price since March 13, 2020 (R$ 4.812). This was the sixth consecutive fall for the US currency against the Brazilian real.
Whenever the dollar falls, many people wonder: will it fall further? Is it time to buy?
It is not easy to predict the dollar rate, and this flow that is coming is called speculative, that is, as it can come very quickly, it can leave at the same speed.
THE CNNFlávio de Oliveira, head of variable income at Zahl Investiment, said that he already recommends that clients buy dollars and that he himself has been buying the currency since it hit R$5.
“It would not be surprising if the dollar went to R$ 4.80, due to the very strong flow of money that is coming from abroad”, he evaluates.
The president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, said this Wednesday that Brazil may have the opportunity to enter the global value chain in a more intense way, due to the war scenario in Eastern Europe, due to the shocks resulting from the conflict. , such as rising prices for minerals and food.
“There is a lot of foreign money coming to Brazil with an eye on interest rates”, highlights Fernando Nakagawa, director of the CNN Brasil Business.
For those who have commitments in dollars, such as a trip abroad, for example, it may be a good opportunity to try to take advantage of this price.
Raphael Vieira, partner and head of fixed income at Arton Advisors, sees room for an even lower price.
“We expect the real to continue this trend over the next few months. The exchange rate has room to reach levels of R$ 4.50, however we have a horizon with a lot of volatility both in the local and external scenario with the Fed [o Banco Central dos Estados Unidos] raising interest rates after a period of more than a decade of monetary stimulus. With that in mind, investors should exercise caution.”
Andre Perfeito, from Necton Investimentos, points out two reasons for this movement of appreciation of the real, “but that are intimately connected.”
First, rising interest rates in the country. Brazil has the second highest real interest rate in the world, second only to Russia. Second, the appreciation of commodities. An example of this would be the rise in oil this Wednesday. Brent, a benchmark in the market, rose 5.30%, closing at US$ 121.60.
“In this context, the real tends to continue to appreciate and unless there is a reversal in these vectors, we could see even more declines in the dollar. Despite the short and medium-term trends of the real continuing to be stronger, we maintain the projection of R$ 5 at the end of the year and for two reasons, namely, the increase in interest rates in the US throughout 2022 and the election in the second half of the year’, points Perfect. Iron ore is another commodity that has appreciated and benefits Brazil.
*With information from Ligia Tuon
Source: CNN Brasil
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