O dollar retreats this Wednesday (9), with currencies such as the real benefiting from a reduction in risk aversion due to greater optimism regarding a possible advance in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.
according to the Petroleum reaches record levels, with Brent oil hovering around US$ 125 a barrel, investors remain alert to possible actions by the Brazilian government to contain oil prices. fuelsand the fiscal impacts they would have, which also influences the performance of the real.
At around 9:17 am, the US currency fell by 0.47%, quoted at R$5.029. The dollar futures contract traded on B3 of first maturity fell 0.63%, to R$ 5.026.
On Tuesday (8), the dollar retreated 0.50%, quoted at R$ 5.053. already the Ibovespa fell by 0.35% to 111,203.45 points.
Petroleum
On Tuesday, Brent crude, which rose as much as 8.07%, reduced its closing gain to 3.87%, after the announcement of ban on import of Russian commodity by the United States and across the UKwhich should increase the supply shock of the product in the coming days.
You prices have been climbing since the Russia invaded Ukraine. Analysts believe the recent frenzy may be just the beginning, as warnings of $200 a barrel begin to spread across the market.
The commodity price has reached its highest level since 2008 on Monday (7), when western countries began to consider an embargo on oil from Russiathe second largest exporter in the world.
The main factor for the increase is the mismatch between supply and demand for the commodity, with the main producers, meeting in OPEC+, still not resuming pre-pandemic production levels, and the situation was intensified with the tensions in europe.
The high represents a potential for fuel prices to advance around the world, including Brazil.
Although, speeches by President Jair Bolsonaro, criticizing Petrobras’ pricing policy, generated fears in the market about a possible intervention in the company. Another possibility is the creation of a temporary subsidy for prices.
Congress should also review projects that seek to reduce fuel prices or avoid new highs through measures such as tax cuts and the creation of a stabilization fund.
The market fears that the measures will end up impacting public accounts and generating a high fiscal risk, which would reduce investor confidence and make the dollar rise due to the outflow of investments.
commodities
Still as a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there is a rise in the prices of other commodities, mainly those linked to Russia and Ukraine, corn, wheat, in addition to oil.
Wheat rose by 7% on Monday, and accumulates appreciation of 75% in the year. According to Necton, the appreciation of the real may reduce this increase to close to 55%.
At the same time, the situation in Ukraine may impact the benefits for the real of an investment migration cycle started in 2022 to markets linked to commodities and seen as cheap, like Brazil, by stimulating the search for the dollar.
The domestic market has also benefited from high interest rates, which limits the effects of bets on an aggressive interest rate policy for the Federal Reserve.
The cycle was linked, in part, to expectations of more pro-growth measures in China that are raising hopes of a recovery in demand for metals, which has led to higher prices, reinforced by the crisis in Ukraine.
On the other hand, interventions by the Chinese government in the market have generated downward pressures, in an ups and downs in prices.
War in Ukraine
Follow CNN’s live coverage of the conflict.
Investors’ focus remains on the war in Ukraine and its aftermath. As Russian troops continue to try to take the country’s capital Kiev, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman said the country will achieve its objective of securing Ukraine’s neutral status and prefers to do this through negotiations. He also said that Russia does not want to overthrow the Ukrainian government.
From an economic point of view, the main event involving the conflict is the series of sanctions announced by the United States and its Western allies.
Among them are the expulsion of Russian banks from Swifta global payments system, and the freezing of reserves by the central bank of Russia.
Countries that support Ukraine have already said they must implement new sanctions against Russia, which has seen its currency, the ruble, plummet and reach a historic low.
The VIX, called the “fear index” for trying to measure the degree of volatility in the market, retreated to around 33 points around 9:11 a.m., after reaching its highest level since September 2020.
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*With information from Reuters
Source: CNN Brasil
I am Sophia william, author of World Stock Market. I have a degree in journalism from the University of Missouri and I have worked as a reporter for several news websites. I have a passion for writing and informing people about the latest news and events happening in the world. I strive to be accurate and unbiased in my reporting, and I hope to provide readers with valuable information that they can use to make informed decisions.
