The dollar was slightly higher against the real this Friday (8), with investors working on standby before the release, at 9:30 am (GMT), of a US employment report, which should offer clues about health. of the US economy and the Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy steps.
In Brazil, investors digested the June reading of the IPCA, which rose 0.67% in the period, accelerating from the 0.47% rate seen in May.
At 9:08 (Brasília time), the spot dollar advanced 0.09%, at R$ 5.3493 on sale.
On B3, at 9:08 am (GMT), the first-maturity dollar futures contract rose 0.18% to R$5.3850.
The US spot currency retreated 1.45% the day before, to R$5.3443, the biggest daily devaluation since June 15 (-2.07%).
overall feeling
Investors still maintain a strong global risk aversion triggered by fears about a possible general economic slowdown due to a series of interest rate hikes around the world to contain record levels of inflation, which would harm many types of investments.
The main cause for this aversion is the cycle of interest rate hikes in United Stateswith the most recent increase announced by the Federal Reserve on May 4th. The autarchy has already ruled out 0.75 percentage point hikes in interest rates, or a risk of taking the country’s economy into recession, but signaled at least two more 0.5 pp hikes.
Higher interest rates in the United States attract investments to the country’s fixed income due to its high security and favor the dollar, but harm bond markets and stock exchanges around the world, including the US.
At the same time, the market follows the data on the country’s economy to understand how aggressive the Fed could be in the process.
THE confirmation of the contraction of the US economy in the first quarter, for example, reinforced the view that the autarchy should not be as aggressive in raising interest rates as expected. already the may inflation signaled a more negative picture, reinforcing higher terminal interest bets.
On the other hand, with the end of lockdown in the city chinese from Shanghai and easing restrictions in the capital Beijing, Chinese demand was expected to return to previous levels, which once again favored commodity exporters and relieved some of the pressure on the real, but new restrictions were announced, reversing the scenario.
The Ibovespa and the real found room for appreciation between the end of May and the beginning of June, but the combination of a worse domestic scenario, with the return of a fiscal risk, and the perspective abroad of strong monetary tightening once again harmed the Brazilian market.
Source: CNN Brasil
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