Un year after a first historic impeachment trial, Donald Trump will find himself again on Tuesday February 9 in the position of accused in the Senate, whose elected officials will have to say whether he encouraged the murderous assault on the Capitol. To convict him in his absence, it will take a vote of two-thirds of the 100 members of the Senate, which makes his acquittal likely.
The violence of the attack on January 6, when elected officials certified Joe Biden’s presidential victory, aroused such dread that Democrats reactivated the impeachment process, even though Donald Trump’s tenure touched on its end. From the 13th, the House of Representatives, controlled by the Democrats, indicted him for “inciting insurrection”, a second “impeachment” marking him again with the seal of infamy, which is not happened to no other president before him. Neither has been tried after leaving power.
“Dissuade the next presidents”
The Republican billionaire and his allies are also relying on his departure from the White House on January 20 to argue that the trial is unconstitutional: senators can, according to them, dismiss a sitting president, but not to judge a simple citizen. The Democratic accusation retorts that a former minister has already been tried in this context, and that Donald Trump must be condemned to make him ineligible and to “dissuade the next presidents from provoking violence in order to remain in power”.
During the trial, his lawyers should focus most of their arguments on this legal debate, to avoid having to defend the fiery tweets and diatribes of their client. Most Republican senators should also hide behind this argument to vote acquittal without having to comment on the merits.
Donald Trump “created a powder keg”
Like a year ago, when he was tried for “abuse of power” for asking Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden’s son, Donald Trump has every chance of avoiding conviction. For him to be found guilty, 17 Republican senators would have to join the 50 Democrats, which seems unlikely at this stage.
The former real estate mogul, however, has a lot to lose in the trial, which will be broadcast live across the United States. Even though it retains a strong supporter base, the attack on the Capitol has eroded its popularity. He who, at 74, cherishes the idea of ​​a new candidacy in 2024, therefore has no interest in seeing the episode played and replayed in the enclosure of the Senate. However, the elected Democrats who will bring the accusation against him do not intend to stick to the legal debate.
In a document summarizing their argument, they set the tone: Donald Trump “created a powder keg, lit a match and then sought to personally profit from the chaos that followed,” they wrote. They should therefore come back at length to the events that shook American democracy.
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