Double elections in Bulgaria

Bulgaria has been without a government since April. On Sunday, voters are called upon to elect a new government and a new president.

Bulgarians have twice gone to the polls in 2021, in April and July, but so far no new government has emerged. “This time there is no room for failure, Bulgarian society is demanding that political parties assume their responsibilities,” said Vesela Chernieva, head of the Sofia-based European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). But who will be the regulator of the electoral contest?

Chernieva points out that new political groups have emerged in recent months that may make a difference. According to new polls, a new reformist party called “We Continue the Change” could ally with the Socialists, as well as with protesting parties that had already run in previous elections, such as the “Democratic Bulgaria”, the populist “There is such a people” party, as well as the formation “Bulgaria, get up! We are coming!”, in order to obtain a sufficient parliamentary majority. “In the long run it will be a difficult political coexistence, but for a while something can be done,” said the ECFR director. “In each case, the people have, for the first time, been offered a chance to vote.

The fear of decisions

Cooperation remains an unknown word for the political parties that are present in the current Parliament, despite the constant calls to overcome the dividing lines of the past. “This time the incentive to form a government will be even stronger than in previous elections,” Parvan Simeonov, director of polling company Gallup International Balkans, told DW. “At the same time, however, the percentages of the parties in our latest polls show that achieving the goal seems even more difficult.”

And all this while accumulating the pending issues and the big problems that are looking for a solution. For example, the collapse of the health system in times of pandemic and the promotion of the vaccination campaign. Every day at least 100 people die in Bulgaria in connection with the coronavirus, but inactivity remains. “Politicians are more afraid of voters than the virus,” said Vesela Chernieva. “The same is true of other important issues: the Bulgarian Recovery Fund plan, energy reform, the conflict with Northern Macedonia, the judicial reform demanded by the opposition and the EU, the fight against corruption. , a transitional government can not and does not want to make decisions … ”

“Progress or stagnation” is the dilemma

A similar view is expressed by Martin Kote, director of the office of the Friedrich Naumann political foundation in the Bulgarian capital, noting that “people want change, but they see stagnation everywhere.” The caretaker government has neither a constitutional mandate nor a parliamentary majority to govern. Under these circumstances, the reformers of the new party “We continue the change” could make a difference. The party was founded just last summer by two former ministers in the transitional government, Assen Vasilev and Kirill Petkov. Analyst Parvan Simeonov calls them “technocrats with an appeal to the free Western economy, who seem to be approaching the Emanuel Macron movement in France.” The Bulgarians call them “Harvard boys”. They themselves say they want to focus on fighting corruption. “They are politically indestructible, they radiate energy and they look courageous,” said Vesela Chernieva. “In the current situation, perhaps these qualifications will make up for the lack of experience. They have the opportunity to emerge as a second party …”

This Sunday the fight for the second place is more interesting than claiming the first place. Everyone agrees that the party of former Prime Minister Boyko Borisov (GERB) will be the leading force again, but that does not mean that it will form a government. After the riots of 2020, Borisov and his party have become isolated. The main question for the parliamentary elections is whether the Socialist Party or the “We Are Continuing Change” reformist group will secure second place. Parvan Simeonov believes that “if the Socialists come second, they will at some point receive the mandate to form a government. If they do not succeed, then there will be no agreement between the political parties.”

The re-election of the president is certain

The anxiety for the presidential elections, which also take place on November 14, is clearly less, in parallel with the elections for the election of a new Parliament. The current incumbent, Rumen Radev, is leading in all polls and is likely to be re-elected. On the other hand, “if he does not succeed in the first round, the difficulties increase significantly in the second round,” warns Parvan Simeonov. “The combination of parliamentary and presidential elections results in the turnout at the ballot box in the first round of the presidential election, but in the second round the picture could be different …”

The torturous question is what will happen if, once again, a competent parliamentary majority does not emerge. In all likelihood, the president will appoint another caretaker government, the third in 2021. “But in this case,” warns Parvan Simeonov, “there is a risk that the credibility of the multi-party parliamentary democracy will collapse and fascist tendencies will strengthen.” today in Bulgaria there is a feeling of exhaustion and indifference at the same time … ”

Christopher Nering

Edited by: Giannis Papadimitriou

Source: Deutsche Welle