Draghi Government Crisis: What Can Happen Now?

Mario Draghi seems to be adamant. Vivacchiare is not a verb in his vocabulary. “The majority of national unity that supported this government is gone. The pact of trust has failed, “he said yesterday in Cabinet announcing the resignation which he then resigned to the head of state. Sergio Mattarella rejected them, sending the prime minister back to the chambers. He will go there on Wednesday and between now and then he will see if there is still a Draghi government.

There are four possible ways. The first is go immediately to vote, what Brothers of Italy ask for. The date would be between late September and early October. If the chambers dissolve on July 20, the vote is taken on September 25.

The second is that remain the same government, that is, that the parliamentary forces that have supported him so far remain with the Draghi government. The pentastellati left the classroom yesterday, but they did not say they had taken away the confidence of Draghi who has the numbers in Parliament. What has failed is political trust. On Wednesday in Parliament the numbers may return: the M5S said they would vote yes, others, like the League, may not.

Third hypothesis is a new Draghi government with a new composition of political forces and the change of some ministers. However, it seems clear that the Prime Minister himself does not want a Draghi bis. He does not want to continue in a logic of blackmail that could come from many sides as the end of the legislature approaches.

These two perspectives are those that represent “extra time”, as they were defined by Giancarlo Giorgetti. These are hypotheses to be verified, but they are also the perspective on which a large part of the current majority works.

The fourth hypothesis is that of a technician that the government continues until the end of the legislature to complete the budget law, management of the pnrr and the economic crisis. He could be the current minister of the economy Daniele Franco, but he has also made the name, institutionally stronger, of Giuliano Amato.

The Pd and Italia Viva they would like Draghi to stay. The center-right, including the government, would prefer the polls. The Northern League presidents of some regions, however, would still like Draghi to manage the PNRR. On Wednesday the premier could gain confidence, but he would be hostage to exits similar to those already made by the Cinquestelle and for Forza Italia and Lega to stay could mean definitively dividing the center-right that, on paper, the next elections already have them in his pocket.

– Mario Draghi resigns: “The trust agreement has failed”

– Government, Draghi ready to leave if the M5s do not vote the confidence