Due to the poll reduction of the difference between Macron-Lepen

The polls opened Sunday morning in France in an ambiguous race between Emanuel Macron and nationalist leader Marine Le Pen.

The French election has many ups and downs, according to Bloomberg, and it did not disappoint – an early belief that the vote would be a repeat of 2017, when Macron faced Le Pen and easily won, was overturned by the far-right Eric Zemour in November and the first woman Republican presidential candidate, Valerie Pekres, in December, which were initially launched in opinion polls.

But their campaigns deflated, largely in favor of Le Pen, which only last week received a strong boost, while Macron support fell. According to the latest polls, Le Pen’s voter support for Macron is a few percentage points away. Now it does not seem at all certain that Macron will remain in the Elysee, according to the same publication.

Macron, 44, was a complacent militant, betting on the idea that war and instability favored the incumbent and that handling the coronavirus pandemic and economic recovery would be enough to bring him back to office without much struggle. For the past six months, he has focused on US and European efforts to prevent and then end a war in Ukraine, talking regularly with Russian President Vladimir Putin and meeting with Western allies.

For a while, opinion polls showed that this strategy worked. However, Lepen insisted on focusing on its retail policy (the issue of accuracy), traveling up and down the country talking to voters about the impact of the conflict on their wallets. He set the race as a battle of David against Goliath, fomenting Macron as a “president of the rich” who could not understand the struggles of ordinary people to cope with the spike in food and energy costs.

In her third attempt to take the top spot in France, Le Pen has become a familiar face and for some at least, a less scary person, although analysts say her views have not changed that much. Her long-term strategy of appearing more modest was indirectly aided by Zemour’s condemnatory public crowns on immigration and identity.

As of April 8, Macron was just 3.5 points ahead of the first round, according to a Bloomberg poll average, a drop of up to 12 points a month earlier.

Macron spent the past week trying to close the gap with a series of last-minute media appearances, including one on Friday night, just hours before presidential candidates are required by law to end their campaign. In an interview with Brut Media, he discussed issues ranging from education and ecology to foreign affairs and religion, but focused more on economic inequalities and purchasing power, issues that belonged to Le Pen.

People close to the president, including Edouard Philippe, a former prime minister in the Macron government, warn that Le Pen has a good chance of winning. Investors are also taking this scenario seriously, and badly. French debt holders have rejected it, pushing benchmark returns up to 1.25%, a level last seen in 2015. This led to a spread against their German counterparts – a measure of investors’ perception of risk. – the largest since March 2020, the start of the pandemic.

If Le Pen overthrows Macron, an ardent supporter of the European venture, it would be a shock to the European Union, possibly comparable to Donald Trump’s US election victory and the 2016 Brexit vote. .s. the EU) vetoed most EU initiatives. Its victory would seal the rise of the far right in France, turning the country on a nationalist, “nativist” course.

But for that to happen, Le Pen will still have to build a “anyone but Macron” coalition in the second round on April 24, and many left-wing voters will have to abstain or support it.

In the end, enough voters can only come to block Le Pen, so that Macron can return to office. In this case, he could be left with a weak mandate that could make it difficult to implement his economic and social reforms, depending on the outcome of the parliamentary elections scheduled for June. Lepen, on the other hand, would probably emerge stronger.

There is one more contestant to watch in this race: Left-wing leader Jean-Luc Melenchon. In his third bid for the presidency, he is polling behind Le Pen and could persuade left-wing voters to rally behind him today.