Many videos on the Internet show unmanned fighter jets flying against Russian forces. What role do Turkish drones play in the Ukraine war?
Images of Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones are circulating on the internet these days, specifically on Turkish-Ukrainian chat channels. These are videos that glorify the capabilities of these weapons, which Kyiv claims to have used successfully against the Russian army. The propaganda is carried out with English and Turkish subtitles. The Ukrainian government has released a number of related videos, as has the Ukrainian embassy via twitter.
However, in reality the extent to which Kyiv has used these weapons can not be verified. Nor can Moscow’s claim that it successfully ousted Bayraktar be verified. The fact is, however, that Ukraine bought Turkish drones in 2019, specifically 50, until the outbreak of war. Last Wednesday, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry announced that an additional number of Bayraktar had recently been delivered to Kyiv, and a day later, President Volodymyr Zelensky stressed how much Ukraine has benefited from them. The Turkish side, as usual, has not commented on the issue.
Weapons produced by Erdogan’s son-in-law
The Bayraktar TB2 drones are built by the Turkish company Baykar, which was started by two brothers, but has grown into an arms export giant during the AKP’s rule. It was founded in 1984 and belongs to the Bayraktar family, the offspring of which is the son-in-law of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Selcuk Bayraktar.
The company has increased its exports in the period 2006 to 2021 according to its own data. According to media reports, Bayraktar TB2 alone has contracts with 16 countries, including Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Morocco, Tunisia, Qatar, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan. Poland is also the first NATO member to announce a 24-unit order. With over 420,000 total flight hours in Iraq and Syria, Nagorno-Karabakh and Libya, the Bayraktar TB2 is now fully operational. More recently, they are said to have been used in Ethiopia, in an attack that reportedly led to the death of 58 civilians. Experts estimate that this type of drone is more efficient and cheaper than other models on the international market.
Can they influence the outcome of the war?
There are still no reliable sources as to the combat nature of these weapons systems. According to Wolfgang Richter, a former colonel and expert at the Berlin Institute of Science and Politics, it is doubtful whether Turkish drones can influence the outcome of the war in Ukraine after the Russian invasion.
As he notes, these drones can inflict sensitive blows on the Russian army, for example in tanks. However, they are not judged enough to neutralize the opponent in ground battles with armor.
How is Turkey positioning itself against Moscow and Kyiv?
Turkey has maintained good relations with Russia, but also with Ukraine for years. Although it supplied Ukraine with drones, at the same time, although it is a member of NATO, it also bought Russian S-400 fighter jets. However, a balancing act seems difficult after the Russian invasion, says Daria Isatsego, a specialist in Defense and Security from the Center for Applied Studies for Turkey at the Science and Politics Foundation. At the moment it seems that Erdogan is not able to take a position in favor of one or the other force. This would have disastrous consequences for Turkish security and the economy.
Therefore, she estimates that Erdogan will do only “what is necessary within the limits of his capabilities”. The closure of the Dardanelles Straits, for example, is part of this framework. Finally, Isachego believes that Turkey will not join the Western sanctions regime against Moscow. This would seriously affect the Turkish economy and in particular sectors such as tourism or imports of agricultural products.
Elmas Toptsou
Edited by: Dimitra Kyranoudi
Source: Deutsche Welle
Source: Capital

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