The US Dollar (USD) rose, along with rising US Treasury yields. The Dollar Index (DXY) was last at 104.26 levels. US data, including Durable Goods Orders and University of Michigan Sentiment, surprised to the upside, note OCBC FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong.
Daily momentum remains bullish
“The RSI turned down from overbought conditions. Although the recent rally still appears technically extended, the upward move may still be prolonged in the short term. That said, we also caution that the subsequent pullback may be abrupt, given any trigger or surprise in the data . Resistance at 104.60 (61.8% fibo), 105.20 levels. Support at 103.80 levels (200 DMA, 50% fibo), 102.90/103.20 levels (21, 100 DMAs, 38.2% Fib retracement from 2023 high to 2024 low) and 101.90 (50 DMA).”
“This week marks the start of 2 busy and eventful weeks with JOLTS Jobs, Consumer Sentiment (Tuesday); ADP Jobs (Wednesday); PCE underlying (Thursday) and NFP (Friday) ahead of the US elections (November 5) and FOMC (November 7) the following week. Between now and then, we should see two-way trading in USD.”
“While the top may appear extended technically, any pullback may also be shallow due to interest in buying USD (proxy for Trump hedges) ahead of the US election. Traditional polls remain too tight to predict while the “Market predictions point to a Trump advantage.”
Source: Fx Street

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