The US Dollar (USD) rose slightly overnight after the FOMC minutes revealed details of resistance at the September FOMC. The DXY was last at 102.99, according to OCBC currency analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong.
Tensions in the Middle East and the elections in the US deserve monitoring
“As for the Fed’s statements, Daly said he expects 1 or 2 more cuts this year, while Collins said the 50 bp cut in September was prudent given the risks. On the other hand, Logan said he supported a path Slower interest rate reduction pace. Moderate expectations about Fed cuts have been discounted. Markets are pricing in only about 45 bps of cuts for the rest of the year, compared to the 75 bps of cuts seen just ago. 2-3 weeks. The markets and the Fed dot chart are now aligned.”
“The USD has also rebounded, partially recovering from the previous ~5% drop seen in Q3. To some extent, the USD may have settled into this temporary state of equilibrium where the risks from here may be largely two-way. Daily momentum remains bullish, but rising RSI shows signs of moderation near overbought conditions. There will likely be two-way trading here at 103.30 (100-DMA). “Fibonacci retracement of 23.6% from 2023 high to 2024 low), 101.30 (21-DMA).”
“Other than the US CPI, initial jobless claims (Thursday) and PPI (Friday), there is no clear major US data catalyst until the next payrolls or payrolls data. PCE underlying in a few weeks. In terms of event risks, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the US elections deserve monitoring. Even at this point, Harris and Trump are tied in the polls. “Markets taking a cautious stance ahead of the US elections may mean the USD is still supported on the declines.”
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
