Her Eleftherias Kourtali
DZ Bank expects a small increase in the issuing activity of the Greek State for 2022 compared to 2021, placing the total bond issues at 16 billion euros, compared to 14 billion euros this year.
The estimates of the German bank move much higher than the … intentions of the ODDIH for 2022, which are placed at 10-12 billion euros, but also the estimates of other companies such as Citigroup and Danske Bank which move close to those that The Agency is expected to announce next month. More specifically, according to recent estimates by Danske Bank, Greece is expected to raise € 12 billion from the markets in 2022, with bond repayments set at € 4 billion. A little lower and at 10 billion euros, Citigroup estimates that the Greek state-owned publications will move next year, with Greece entering the markets a total of six times,
According to DZ Bank, in addition to the expected budget deficit of about 8 billion euros, debt repayments of about 3.6 billion euros and bond maturities of about 4.3 billion euros are also due. However, Greece could also meet its refinancing needs, at least in part, with its high cash flow, the bank notes.
At the same time, he points out that Greece has now repaid almost all of its debt from the IMF – there is only 1.7 billion euros left, while part of the loans of the first memorandum (GLF) is already being discussed to be repaid early. As Capital.gr has noted, Greece is oriented towards the repayment of two installments of these loans, totaling 5.2 billion euros. The early repayment of the 2022 loans was originally planned, which is a total of about 2.6 billion euros, however, the high cash resources allow further movements on this front, which improve the “debt picture” and thus the “equation” came the repayment of the 2023 installment.
Finally, DZ Bank emphasizes that the Greek government has already announced that it has begun preparations for the issuance of green bonds in the second half of 2022. Greece, as the bank observes, will thus become the first country in the eurozone with a rating lower than the investment grade , which will offer green bonds.
It is worth noting that according to information, the Greek green bond will be small in size, of the order of 1-1.5 billion euros, with the possibility that the issue will be “opened” later to reach 2.5-3 billion . euro.
Overall, DZ Bank expects that in 2022, gross lending activity is expected to decline slightly to around 1.2 trillion. for all euro area countries, and by € 65 billion compared to 2021, with the largest reductions coming from Italy (minus € 45 billion and € 336 billion in total) and Spain (minus € 32 billion). billion and 143 billion in total). Belgium is expected to record the largest increase, drawing 14 billion euros more from the markets than in 2021.
As the ECB is expected to reduce its bond markets, the refinancing environment is likely to be less favorable and “comfortable” than in 2020 and 2021, despite still very low bond yields. Investors should thus absorb a larger share of the volume of countries’ issues.