Experts from the European Central Bank doubled their forecast for inflation in 2022 as the war in Ukraine continues to fuel an unprecedented rally in energy costs, while lowering their growth forecasts.
In particular, in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) survey for the second quarter, respondents revised their inflation forecasts for 2022 and 2023 to 6.0% and 2.4% respectively. , from 3% and 1.8% in the research of the first quarter.
Estimates for 2024 were unchanged at 1.9%, while in the long run they were revised to 2.1% from 2%.
For GDP growth, the agencies’ forecasts were revised downwards for 2022 and 2023 and slightly upwards for 2024.
In particular, for 2022 they place growth at 2.9% from 4.2% previously, for 2023 at 2.3% from 2.7% previously and for 2024 at 1.8% from 1.7%. In the long run, the forecast is for real GDP growth of 1.4% from 1.5% in the previous forecast.
ECB President Christine Lagarde, speaking at a news conference yesterday following the bank’s monetary policy decisions, warned that inflation has risen sharply and will remain high in the coming months, mainly due to the sharp rise in energy costs.
How the economy develops “will depend crucially on the course of the conflict [στην Ουκρανία]”The impact of the sanctions imposed and the possibility of taking further action,” the ECB chief said.
Source: Capital
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