ECB minutes: Uncertainty over economic outlook had increased

Minutes from the European Central Bank’s (ECB) October monetary policy meeting revealed on Thursday that members “highlighted that uncertainty around the economic outlook had increased compared to that of September.”

According to the document, members agreed that most core inflation indicators appeared to have passed their peak and were continuing to decline, but warned that domestic inflation was stubbornly high and long-term inflation forecasts appeared to remain above the target. objective of the ECB.

Highlighted conclusions

The members highlighted that the Uncertainty around the economic outlook had increased compared to the time of the Governing Council meeting in September, which also affected the assessment of the appropriate stance of monetary policy.

It was maintained that, given current prospects, it could be expected that the Advice of Government could place inflation again at its target of 2% in 2025. Although the “last mile” in bringing inflation back to target was generally seen as the most difficult, it was argued that the Governing Council needed to be careful that its efforts to control inflation did not ultimately lead to underspending. Of the objective.

The members agreed that the Governing Council should continue to underline its determination to set official interest rates, through its future decisions, at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary to bring inflation back to target in a timely manner.

Even if interest rates remain unchanged at the current meeting, it was considered that the Governing Council should be prepared, on the basis of continuous evaluation, for further increases in interest rates if necessary, even if this is not part of the current reference scenario.