ECDC: The probability of further spread of the Omicron variant is very high

The “Omicron” mutation of the coronavirus is likely to be predominant in early 2022, according to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), despite the fact that the “Delta” variant remains the most widespread at the moment.

“Therefore, we assess the possibility of further spread of the Omicron variant in the European Union and the European Economic Area as very high,” he notes.

The emergence of the “Omicron” variant of concern raises serious concerns due to the preliminary reports of a significant growth advantage and possible immune escape compared to the “Delta” variant. Although the Omicron cases originally reported in the EU / EEA were linked to travel, there is now a growing number of cases acquired within the EU / EEA, including as groups and outbreaks. Cases are also detected through representative sampling in routine monitoring systems. This shows that Community transmission is already under way in EU / EEA countries and that a further rapid increase in the number of cases is expected in the next two months.

The data are currently too limited to assess the severity of Omicron-induced disease in the EU and EEA population. However, even if the severity of the disease caused by this mutation is equal to or less than the severity of Delta, increased transmission and the consequent exponential increase in cases will quickly offset the potential benefits of a reduced severity. Therefore, it is considered very likely that “Omicron” will cause additional hospitalizations and deaths, in addition to those already expected in previous forecasts that take into account only “Delta”.

The effectiveness of the vaccines against the serious outcomes caused by “Delta” remains high. As of 9 December 2021, the cumulative full intake of the COVID-19 vaccine in the total EU / EEA population is 66.8%. Overall, progress in vaccination remains uneven between countries, with four EU / EEA countries reporting even less than 50% of full vaccine intake in their total population.

In addition, there are still insufficient real-life data on the efficacy of EU-approved vaccines against the “Micron” mutation.

According to the available data on the serious consequences caused by Delta and possibly Omicron, booster doses will increase protection, with the impact on the population expected to be higher if the booster dose is given for the most part. of adults in a short time. The available data support the safe and effective administration of the booster dose as early as three months after the completion of the initial vaccination. Shortening the dosing period to three months may require adjustment of national vaccine development plans.

In response to its high incidence, non-pharmacological interventions should continue to be applied by all countries and given the imminent possible dominance of Omicron, they should be further strengthened without delay. Their immediate reinforcement will slow the spread of Omicron, to allow countries to save time for further development of vaccines, including booster doses, and to prevent a sudden high impact from the spread of this variant.

Source: AMPE