ECLAC forecasts a 25% increase in trade in goods in Latin America this year

Latin American trade in goods is expected to increase 25% in 2021, mainly due to higher commodity prices, although future performance depends on the evolution of the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on the global economy, a UN commission said on Tuesday Monday (7).

The UN Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLAC), headquartered in Santiago, said that for 2021 it projects an annual recovery of 25% in the value of regional exports, not including services, driven by the 17% increase in export prices and by the 8% increase in volume.

The value of imports would increase 32%, he said, as a result of a 20% increase in volume and 12% increase in prices.

“The region as a whole is expected to run a $24 billion surplus in its trade in goods by 2021,” the commission said in the report. “It is smaller than in 2020, which is mainly explained by the considerable recovery in import volumes.”

The resumption of regional trade is supported by the rise in the prices of several of its main export products, including oil, copper and grains. The growth in demand from China, the United States and Europe is also a factor, in addition to the recovery of economic activity in the ECLAC region.

Oil-exporting countries are expected to register a 15% improvement in trade this year, the commission said, followed by exporters of agribusiness products, including Argentina and Paraguay, and metal exporters Chile and Peru.

The commission warned that “although the prices of many basic products exported by the region are at high levels, there is no data to confirm that there is a new supercycle” of commodities.