Economic Chess War: China’s Dynamics and New Alliances

Experts have been talking for years: the USA are steadily declining in terms of their decades-long established role as the No. 1 global superpower: a category that began with the election of Donald Trump in 2016 and continues with many other examples, most notably the withdrawal of US forces from the Afghanistan – another indication that Washington is no longer interested in controlling the area, on the geopolitical border between the Middle East and Asia.

So under the current circumstances, for about a decade now, it has been heard louder and louder Beijing’s economic “roar” which, of course, is eager to take the reins of world governance, at least on economic and colonial terms, as evidenced by the pile of Chinese investment in poor and economically dependent Africa, which China considers it as “virgin soil” and the shortest way to achieve its goals.

For example, the Reputable Economist in his extensive article states that “the determination of the Chinese to win the championships is enormous”. But according to credible analysts, determination alone is not enough.

“China will indeed be within breathing distance of the United States but will never be able to overcome it,” he said. Minsin Pay, Professor of Governance at Claremont McKenna College.

Minsin first reminds that the United States, through it economic decoupling strategy, are already trying to put a brake on China’s further development. This is how the recent economic sanctions in Beijing came about, along with the attempt to bring in new technologies and know-how in the West, such as leaving the Chinese company at all costs. Huawei out of 5G networks.

“US sanctions have hit Huawei hard,” the analyst said, noting, however, that the strategy could not end in any way, but only slowed Chinese growth somewhat.

Given that Chinese GDP currently accounts for 70% of US, Even if the Chinese economy manages to overtake the US economy, however, the per capita GDP in the US will continue to be significantly higher, almost four times, compared to the Chinese.

“A country four times richer than its main geopolitical rival has, in practice, more money to invest in the armed forces, research and development. “Provided that in turn the American leaders will show the necessary political will in this direction,” Minsin notes meaningfully.

Demographics, international status and educational benefits

There is another downside, demographic nature, According to the analyst: “China is aging faster than America. The UN predicts that in 2040 the The average age in China will be 46.3 years while in the US it is 41.6 years. “As a result, China’s growth is expected to slow significantly during the 2030s.”

Another important obstacle for China is also the fact that “the US has and will continue to have the best research universities, the most innovative technology companies and the most efficient financial markets “.

In addition, China “plays ball” almost alone on a global scale, I was in a disadvantaged lonely position as it has no visible ally while the US still has, and despite sad attempts to isolate the Trump administration, some economic partners such as the EU and geopolitical allies. “Furthermore, the United States has no rivals and the Chinese are called upon to confront, perhaps at the military level, with the Japanese and Indians.

With all this in mind, yes “China will cover even more the distance that separates it from the US by the end of the 2020s, but growth will slow down over the next decade, when it will hardly be able to become the No. 1 in the world superpower”.

Finally, as Minsin concludes meaningfully, “The most prevalent and convenient scenario for both forces is a scenario find a way to transcend their national superegoes and identify possible ways of working together “With all that entails at the economic and political level.”

The -new, but unbalanced- factor “Australia”

There is, however, something else that makes it even more difficult for China to prevail even in the geopolitically critical and fluid region of SE Asia: the new initiatives of Washington.

In a move that could also be perceived as… matte, US “shields” the South Pacific (looking to Southeast Asia) through a new military agreement with “girlfriend” Australia and Britain.

“The first major initiative of AUKUS (the name of this new pact) will be to deliver a fleet of submarine nuclear propulsion to Australia,” Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said in a video, as did his British counterpart Boris Johnson. during an event chaired by Joe Biden at the White House.

The US president has been repeating that since he was elected intends to confront China, like his predecessor, Donald Trump, but in a very different way, investing, as he said, “To our greatest source of power, to our alliances.”

And there is no doubt that this new alliance is primarily aimed at addressing Beijing’s regional ambitions, not so much to the west as to the east.