The economic team of the federal government revised downwards the projection of economic growth in 2022. According to the Macrofiscal Bulletin of the Ministry of Economyreleased this Thursday (17), the expectation is that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow 1.5% this year, compared to 2.1% previously expected.
The value is still better than the estimate of the financial market, which, according to the latest edition of the Bulletin Focus, predicts a rise of 0.49%.
“Among the positive factors to boost growth in 2022 are the high savings rate, the recovery of the services sector, the continuous improvement in the labor market and robust investment, both private and in partnership with the public sector”, highlights the folder.
The “high volume of investment contracted for 2022” is also cited. According to the document, there are almost R$ 80 billion of investments expected in 2022, an amount equivalent to 1% of GDP.
On the other hand, the economic team admits that threats to economic growth have not yet been ruled out, such as possible breaks in global value chains affecting supply, deterioration in financial conditions and the effects of the conflict on international trade and Brazil’s balance of payments. Such risks are linked to the economic impacts of the war in Ukraine.
Another factor monitored is the consequence of the pandemic on economic activity. “As with any projection, there is uncertainty inherent in estimating the prospective horizon. […] It is observed that the variance of the estimates increases each year ahead, which indicates that growth projections tend to be revised as the economy suffers new shocks”.
quarterly GDP
The economic team projects economic growth of 1% in the first three months of the year, compared to the same period in 2021. In comparison with the immediately previous quarter, the advance should be 0.5%.
While the inter-annual variation should be driven by a 2.6% growth in the services sector, the advance compared to the last three months of last year should be driven by a 2% growth in the agricultural sector and a positive variation of 0.4% in services.
Inflation above target
The government again raised the official projection for 2022 inflation. According to the economic team, the current expectation is that the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) will close the year at 6.55%. The number is slightly higher than the 6.45% expected by financial market analysts.
In the previous edition of the document, published in November, the forecast for inflation was 4.7%. In September and July, the IPCA expected for 2022 was still at 3%.
If the new projection is confirmed, inflation will exceed the ceiling of the target stipulated by the National Monetary Council (CMN) for the second consecutive year. While the center of the inflation target this year is 3.5%, the tolerance interval of 1.5 percentage points leaves room for the IPCA to vary between 2% and 5%.
Source: CNN Brasil
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