Economy reduces forecast for public accounts leak in 2021 to BRL 95 billion

The federal government’s economic team reduced the forecast for this year’s public accounts deficit. This was the 4th consecutive improvement in projection. Previously estimated at BRL 139.4 billion, the fiscal hole should be BRL 95.822 billion.

The numbers are from the 5th Revenue and Expenditure Assessment Report of the Ministry of Economy, released this Monday (22). In April, the government even estimated a deficit of R$ 286 billion.

According to the folder, the improvement in expectations is a consequence of the improvement in revenue, driven by the resumption of growth. In addition, the better result increases the “possibility of expanding discretionary expenses due to a drop in the projection of mandatory expenses”.

Spending on mandatory requirements dropped from R$514 million to R$1.522 tri. Discretionary spending this year, on the other hand, advanced R$4.57 billion to R$129.042 billion.

The composition of the primary result must be by a total primary revenue of 1.913 trillion and a total expenditure of R$ 1.651 trillion. In the last edition of the document, the numbers were BRL 1.855 trillion and BRL 1.507 trillion, respectively.

gross debt

The estimate for the General Government Gross Debt (DBGG), which should close the year at 80.5% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the base scenario, was also revised. The indicator serves as a benchmark for risk rating agencies, which defines the attractiveness of investments in countries.

If the Precatório PEC is approved, the DBGG forecast rises to 81.7% of GDP, the same number as estimated in the base scenario for the last two months.