Elections in Romania: the balance of the West is at stake (and the far right advances)

This article on the elections in Romania is published in issue 50 of Vanity Fair on newsstands until 10 December 2024.

In the Romanian parliamentary elections the social democrats are first but the far right advances. And this must also be taken into account for the two-round presidential elections. Whatever happens in Romania, the end of 2024 is also the end of certainties: Bucharest’s loyalty to NATO was not in question before presidential candidate Cǎlin Georgescu’s name hit the news.

All the capitals tell us about the profound destabilization that the European Union is going through: even solid Germany is no longer solidBerlin returns to the vote and then it is likely to be France’s turn. The two countries at the heart of the European project are politically more unstable than ever, with the AfD holding sway and Marine Le Pen dominating. In Austria, the pro-Russian far right (FPÖ) also made a breakthrough in the elections in Styriasending the negotiations into fibrillation for the formation of a government that keeps the FPÖ out despite it now being the first party.

Vienna is known for the presence of Russian spies, Georgescu himself lived here, and the fact that this name – extreme right pro Moscow – imposes itself on the electoral scene changes the connotations of the entire EU: Romania is strategic for its geographical contiguity with Ukraine and Moldova (both in the interests of the Kremlin) and the view of the Black Sea (same sea as Odessa). With the war in Ukraine this side of the EU has become increasingly a NATO outpostwhich took action to transform the «Mihail Kogălniceanu» base into the largest in Europe, even surpassing Ramstein.

Romania as a bastion of the Western alliance: yes, but also this certainty has collapsed since November 24thwhen Georgescu, until now considered irrelevant in polls and the media, won the first round of the presidential elections. Saying it’s far right it would be reductive: it is the most pro-Russian thing the Romanian panorama offers. And it offers a lot: in the parliamentarians of December 1st, even with the Social Democrats first, they had a far-right groups boom like Aur (in the EU with Meloni).

In the past, Aur himself proposed Georgescu’s name for the government, and then dumped him: his statements were too pure for Aur. How did it become a phenomenon? One answer is: TikTok. G4Media analysis shows that myriads of people were recruited and paid via Telegram who helped spread Georgescu’s messages.

Did anyone notice? For the Eastern European historian Stefano Bottoni, «Romania is a police state: the secret services are powerful and influence public life». But “until now they were anchored to the West”. Did they not see what was happening, or at least one part saw clearly and is no longer loyal to the structure? The link between Georgescu and the system of power connected to services makes you think so. The political scientist Claudiu Tufiș explains this in Gemist: he notes that the new party organized around Georgescu (Pot) «emerged from nowhere» but already well structured in the area.

After a complaint about the votes shifted in favor of the liberal Elena Lasconi, who came second, the Constitutional Court imposed a recount, but then confirmed the outcome: Romania will vote in the second round of the presidential elections on 8 December, and this is Certain. But for the rest, there is no certainty about Romania.

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