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Elections in South Africa: Atlas survey was the closest to the result; see numbers

With the vote count almost complete in South Africa, AtlasIntel emerges as the research institute that came closest to the results of the elections.

Compared to what has been found at the polls so far (99.9%), the average error in the last survey released by the institute, on May 28, was 1.28%.

Following the lowest error averages comes the Enca/Markdata institute, with 2.04% in relation to its most recent survey, released on May 20th.

The average is calculated by the percentage difference between voting intentions measured in the last survey by each institute and the official voting result.

AtlasIntel average error in survey released on May 28

Counting the ballots x Atlas search result -> Error rate

  • ANC – 40.2% x 38.5% -> 1.7%
  • FROM THE – 21.8% x 20.3% -> 1.5%
  • MK – 14.6% x 14.7% -> 0.1%
  • EFF – 9.5% x 12% -> 2.5%
  • Other parties – 13.9% x 14.5% -> 0.6%
    Atlas search error average: 1.28%

Average error of the latest polls of voting intentions compared to other institutes

  • AtlasIntel (May 28) – 1.28%
  • Enca/Markdata (May 20) – 2.04%
  • Social Research Foundation (May 28) – 2.12%
  • Brenthurst Foundation/SABI (March 1) – 2.28%
  • Ipsos (April 21) – 2.48%

In the case of the Social Research Foundation survey, five scenarios were released on the eve of the election and AtlasIntel considered, for comparison purposes, the one that came closest to the voter turnout rate.

AtlasIntel followed the electoral race in South Africa for the first time this year and released a public survey the day before voters went to the polls.

According to the institute's CEO, Andrei Roman, “this is an extremely difficult election to measure, due to the country's diversity”, such as in relation to ethnicities and languages.

“What I think we managed to do well was deal with such great diversity, in so many dimensions”, he assesses.

Another factor that also made the measurement more complex, according to Roman, was the fact that the downward trend in the ratings of the African National Congress (ANC), Nelson Mandela's party, was only consolidated in the final stretch of the campaign.

The CEO also explained that the Atlas survey uses digital collection as a methodology, with an internet questionnaire, and random recruitment of respondents in geolocated territories.

Throughout the race, the institute even recorded an even worse result for the current party in power than the vote count so far indicates – just over 40%. In the public survey released, AtlasIntel indicated 38.5% voting intentions for the acronym.

“The assessment of the African electorate is very poor in relation to the government, so there are no major anchors of support for the ANC based on the government’s assessment,” he said.

With this result, the ANC is expected to lose its majority in Parliament for the first time in 30 years, marking the biggest political change in the country since the end of Apartheid. In the last elections, the party received 57.5% of the votes.

The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), responsible for counting, has counted 99.9% of the votes so far. The final result should be released today (2) at 1 pm, Brasília time.

*Published by Renata Souza, from CNN

Source: CNN Brasil

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