Voting intention polls for the presidential elections in the United States still do not indicate clear favoritism between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, according to Clarissa Forner, Professor of International Relations at Universidade São Judas Tadeu. In an analysis of the American electoral scenario, the expert highlights the inconclusiveness of current data.
Forner, who is also a researcher at the National Institute of Science and Technology for Studies on the United States (INCT-INEU), notes that some analysts’ perception of Trump’s possible advantage may be related to past experiences. “Perhaps it is a perception based on something we observed in other elections, in which the polls ended up underestimating the possibility of Trump’s reach”, explains the professor, referring to the 2016 and 2020 elections.
Caution in interpreting research
The researcher highlights the importance of distinguishing between opinion polls and electoral projections. “It’s not that we necessarily have to distrust them, but we are talking about research and not necessarily projections”, explains Forner, emphasizing the different methodologies used.
A crucial factor pointed out by the professor is the phenomenon of “embarrassed voting”, in which voters can declare a position in polls, but vote differently on election day. “This possibility of an embarrassed vote, in quotation marks, may be open to both sides”, ponders Forner.
Technical draw scenario
Despite the speculation, Clarissa Forner states that the current scenario is still a technical draw. “The research in general is still very inconclusive, for us to point out favoritism for either of the two in this sense”, concludes the professor, reinforcing the need for caution when analyzing the available data.
The uncertainty of the American electoral framework continues to generate debates and analyses, with experts warning of the importance of considering multiple factors in addition to voting intention surveys when assessing each candidate’s chances.
This content was originally published in US Elections: Research is still inconclusive and does not indicate favoritism between Kamala and Trump, analyzes a researcher on the CNN Brasil website.
Source: CNN Brasil
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