Erdogan fears an election defeat

Developments are moving at a fast pace. A few months ago all the signs were pointing in the direction of a de-escalation. Ankara has been trying on various fronts to restore broken relations with its neighbors. In the end, even Greek-Turkish relations benefited – for a short time – from Erdogan’s charm attack.

Things changed with the war in Ukraine giving the Turkish president the international context to promote himself (and his country) as a mediator, even as a peacemaker. However, Ankara had all its own interests in mind. He is not involved in financial sanctions against Putin. Today, Turkey is considered Russia’s last open gate to the West.

Erdogan’s announcement that he would veto Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership is a political bomb within the alliance. With his warning, Erdogan destroys the image of the united front that the West has cultivated since the beginning of the war.

Rumors of early elections in Turkey are growing

The threat of a veto is just the beginning. For weeks, Turkish violations of Greek airspace over the Aegean have poisoned relations in the alliance’s southeastern wing. Memories of 2020 come to mind, when Greece and Turkey were on the verge of military conflict. Erdogan’s recent insults against the Greek prime minister following his successful trip to Washington are a verbal escalation unique in the history of the Western alliance.

And Ankara’s unilateral actions continue. President Erdogan announced a new Turkish invasion of northern Syria. Since 2016, Ankara has waged three wars in the neighboring country, bringing large areas in the border region under its control. The official excuse has always been – and remains – the same: to fight the Kurdish PKK and its allies.

This is only part of the truth. The real reason for the threatened new escalation lies in Turkey itself. Erdogan is acting out of internal political reckoning and fearing an imminent election defeat. Rumors of early elections in Turkey are once again on the rise. A war against the Kurds is a great way to divert attention from the catastrophic economic situation and mobilize voters. The government already claims that it intends to resettle many Syrian refugees, who are anything but popular with the Turkish population, in the “liberated” areas of northern Syria.

Erdogan appears as a defender of the Turkish nation

But the situation in the region is confused. Erdogan’s plans are met with resistance in the West. The Kurds in northern Syria are the US’s most important allies in the fight against Islamic State. For the Turkish president, the objections of the USA and the West for a new war in Syria are of secondary importance. For Erdogan, the main motivation is the expected internal political benefit from a new escalation.

When two allies disagree, a third benefits – and that third is Vladimir Putin. The information indicates that the Russians have already withdrawn their troops from the area of ​​the Turkish border with Syria. Moscow has transferred part of its 60,000 troops to Syria in Ukraine as aid. It can be assumed that Ankara and Moscow are coordinating their actions in Syria.

In the event of a new war in Syria, Erdogan’s public criticism of Western democracies is expected to intensify. The predicted tensions with the West are a gift from God for Erdogan’s election campaign. He will once again present himself as the defender of the great Turkish nation, protecting the country from the sale of its national interests in the West.

Dr. Ronald Maynardus

*Dr. Ronald Maynardus is a political analyst, commentator and lead researcher at ELIAMEP. In the mid-1990s he was director of the Greek editorial board of Deutsche Welle.

Source: Deutsche Welle