A lot is at stake for Ankara. The Turkish government maintains relations with both Russia and Ukraine. A Russian invasion of Ukraine would put Ankara in a difficult position and it would have to choose between Moscow and Kiev. That is why Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan now wants to mediate and travel to Kiev. Next, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected in Turkey. But can Erdogan really prevent the crisis with his diplomatic efforts and prevent a Russian invasion? Many experts consider it impossible.
One of them is the political scientist Aydin Sezer. In her view, Erdogan can not act as an independent mediator because as a NATO member, Turkey already has a position, that of NATO. In addition, Moscow has so far rejected Ankara’s proposals.
Professor Ragip Kutay Karaka, an international relations scholar at Aydin University in Istanbul, also does not believe in the success of Erdogan’s initiative. At the last Turkey-Ukraine Summit, the Turkish President reiterated his country’s support for Ukraine. In fact, at the last summit, Erdogan again rejected the recognition of Crimea as Russian territory. He also appeared as a protector of the Crimean Tatars and spoke about mosques and houses that would be built for them.
Turkey supplies drones to Ukraine
Moscow, on the other hand, is outraged by the delivery of drones from Turkey to Ukraine. Relations between Turkey and Russia are close but also complex. Ankara, as a member of NATO, buys Russian defense systems despite the disapproval of NATO and the United States. In Libya, Syria, Nagorno-Karabakh and Ukraine, however, it is on the opposite side. The two countries also maintain good economic relations and Turkey is dependent on Russian gas and energy in general, it depends almost exclusively on third countries. Ankara also relies on Russia for tourism and is an important market for Turkey, especially for its agricultural products.
However, Ukraine is also becoming more and more important for Turkey. Turkey was the country with the most investments in Ukraine in 2020, according to Burak Pehlivan, president of Turkish-Ukrainian Operations, who has lived in Kiev for 12 years. Last year, Ukraine was the third most important customer for Turkish companies.
Fear of great damage
There are fears in Ankara that there will be other consequences, such as the general power supply to Turkey in the event of a military invasion by Russia. Just because Iran stopped supplying gas last week, many companies had to stop production for several days.
That is why Ankara intends to make every effort to prevent a further escalation of the crisis in Ukraine. The already troubled Turkish economy could suffer even more damage and Erdogan’s plans to attract more investment to the country with the policy of low interest rates would be useless.
Tomorrow in Kiev, Erdogan will definitely show solidarity with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky. However, it is not his trip to Ukraine that will be decisive, but what will follow. Russian President Putin’s visit to Turkey. Whether Putin wants to give the role of ombudsman to Ankara remains to be seen.
Glylsen Solaker
Edited by: Maria Rigoutsou
Source: Deutsche Welle
Source: Capital
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