Erdogan’s goal is to control the energy game

A high-ranking figure in the Cypriot government admitted a few days ago that “the Turks do what they say,” wanting in this way to interpret Erdogan’s intentions on the eve of Abdulhamid Khan’s first mission to the Eastern Mediterranean. The fact that the fourth Turkish drilling rig stayed within the Turkish continental shelf and at a distance of 55 kilometers from the Turkish authorities, offered a breather to Nicosia and Athens. However, what both should watch out for is Erdogan’s long-term plans based on a specific goal, to get Abdulhamit Khan to extract natural gas.

Precisely because Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to achieve the goals he sets, and in this case it is the extraction of natural gas, he appears to be moving into areas where it is estimated that he will succeed in finding natural gas. “From the time we extract the natural gas, you will see how the weather changes in the whole region,” Erdogan said bluntly, speaking at a ceremony to inaugurate 34 hydroelectric plants.

The Turkish ruler knows very well the importance of natural gas extraction in the Eastern Mediterranean and how much it will change the situation for him and his country if Abdulhamid Khan succeeds in his attempt. Erdogan’s reference to “changing weather across the region” was no accident. It is the goal he has set.

In Nicosia and Athens, but also elsewhere, they watched with special attention the ceremony of Abtulhamit Khan’s departure from the port of Tassouzou in Mersina. Ankara had previously made sure to create a fair amount of mystery around where the drill would be headed. Putting down the data from the research tour of the Orouts Race, the governments of Cyprus and Greece agreed that there were seven possible points where the Turkish drilling rig could move. The six inside the Cyprus Exclusive Economic Zone and one outside it in the area between Adana and occupied Cyprus, within the Turkish EEZ.

Hearing Erdogan send the Abdulhamit Khan on a mission just 55 kilometers off the coast of Antalya breathed a sigh of relief for everyone in Nicosia and Athens as the last thing they would want right now is another tension with Turkey. At least until October, when it is estimated that the drilling rig is anchored in Yorukler-1, things will move relatively more calmly in the Eastern Mediterranean, as far as Turkish movements are concerned.

In the past, Nicosia ranking the Turkish challenges within the Cyprus Exclusive Economic Zone placed drilling and mining at the top. And the fact that Abdulhamit Khan’s drilling rig is landing in clean Turkish waters and not in an area where Turkey disputes the sovereign rights of the Republic of Cyprus, this is something pleasing for the rulers in Nicosia.

It is not considered a coincidence that Nicosia did not react in relation to the Turkish action. From the moment the Turkish drilling rig moves inside the Turkish EEZ there is nothing to be said, that was roughly the approach of the Cypriot government.

The question remains, however, why Erdogan would send Abdulhamit Khan to Yorukler-1, 55 kilometers from the Gazipasa area and not to one of the other possible mining sites in an area that disputes the sovereignty of the Republic of Cyprus. The rulers in Cyprus and Greece may declare that their behind-the-scenes movements played a role mainly through Germany and France. Perhaps they played a role, but no one can imagine that the place where the Turkish drilling rig would go was chosen at the last minute and after any suggestions that had been made by the Germans and the French.

Analyzing the movements of the Turkish side, one will notice that, unlike some actions in the past, careful steps have been taken this time. The answer to “why there and not somewhere else” is found in Erdoğan’s statement that “from the time we extract the natural gas, you will see the weather change in the whole region”.

It is very obvious that Turkey wants to play with more confident and effective moves on the Eastern Mediterranean energy chessboard. It is moving to a point where its own studies (which no one else seems to know about) show that the chances of natural gas extraction are much greater than anywhere else.

Because what interests Erdogan right now is finding and extracting natural gas somewhere in the Eastern Mediterranean. And he chose a spot where there are high chances and no one is going to disturb him as he plans his next moves.

The discovery of hydrocarbons in the Eastern Mediterranean came to change the geostrategic game of the region (game-changer, as it is characterized in diplomatic language). And it is precisely this data change that Erdogan is referring to when he talks about “changing the weather in the entire region”. And one needs to look at what follows a successful mission by Abdulhamid Khan to Yuroukler-1.

First, internally, Turkey will still have an important energy source which, combined with the mining in the Black Sea, will offer it a very important economic breath by reducing natural gas imports, and by extension the negative economic balance in the country. The economy is currently the most important problem for Erdogan in his attempt to win the elections in 2023. And it is certain that he will make those moves that will ensure a better economic situation in the country.

Secondly, if the Yorukler-1 mission is crowned with success, then Turkey sends a strong message to Europe and the international actors about the energy reserves of the Eastern Mediterranean. Having at his disposal a state-of-the-art drilling rig with enormous potential, Erdogan will have every reason to advertise it in Europe and above all to convince them that at the moment Turkey is the only country in the region that can effectively extract the natural gas of the Eastern Mediterranean.

And as Europe enters what is expected to be a very difficult winter due to the war in Ukraine and the Russian backlash, it will be much easier to be persuaded by messages like the ones Erdogan will want to send. That is to say that the country that will be able to contribute to the “energy security of Europe” is Turkey and no one else. That is why he did not rush to send Abdulhamit Khan outside Turkish waters. The strategy game he is currently playing is estimated to be more profitable in the future. Euroclair-1 is enough to give it a sufficient dose of natural gas.

Movements according to developments

What Erdogan is primarily interested in is the 2023 elections and whether he will manage to stay in power. And the moves he is expected to make before the elections will have public opinion at home as their main goal.

They are more concerned with their rhetorical outbursts in Cyprus and Greece than inside Turkey where they see the state of the economy going from bad to worse. The threats against Greece and the questioning of Cyprus do not change the economic situation of the average Turkish citizen who will go to vote in a few months.

That is why Erdoğan wants to make moves that will make him appear strong to the outside world but will give him votes at home. And natural gas is a powerful card for Erdogan to achieve this dual goal of his: to be strong in the region and liked at home.

He did them a favor and expects retribution

It is very well known that by doing or showing that he intends to do someone a favor, Erdoğan expects the corresponding retribution, which he takes care to determine in advance. This is how he is moving now with Abdulhamit Khan’s mission.

Although the reasons that kept Abdulhamit Khan near the Turkish shores are more substantial at the end of the day, he nevertheless does not let the paper of interventions go to waste in view of continuation.

The United States and Germany played their part by intervening with the Turkish government to keep the rig out of disputed areas. And at this moment, Erdogan appears to be doing them a favor and tacitly stays within the Turkish EEZ, avoiding moving into areas where tension could be caused.

It is certain that he expects the corresponding retribution from both the Americans and the Germans. First and foremost in the field of defensive armor. Turkey’s list of demands has long been before the governments in Washington and Berlin, and they will have to find a way to satisfy it.

For Erdogan, things are very simple “they owe him, not him”.

But in Erdogan’s mind it is not only armaments. It will also attempt to secure a passport to free movement in the Eastern Mediterranean. By ensuring the tolerance of the Americans and the indirect support of the Germans, he knows very well that he can do whatever he wants around Cyprus without any cost.

Source: philenews.com