Ethiopia: “the country’s sovereignty is at stake”

On October 11, 2019, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed received the Nobel Peace Prize, “for his efforts in favor of peace and international cooperation, and in particular for his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with the Neighboring Eritrea ”. A little over a year later, hope gave way to disarray. Since November 4 and the attack on Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) bases in Mekele, the capital of Tigray, and Dansha, a town in the west of the region, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the federal authorities are waging a merciless war. No negotiation, no call for calm seems to stop the escalation of violence in which the two parties are launching. And yet its consequences on the population are disastrous: according to the UNHCR, already more than 33,000 people have fled to Sudan since November 9.

After a 72-hour ultimatum issued on November 22, the Prime Minister, now warlord, finally ordered, four days later, the “final” offensive against Mekele, making observers and the population fear a new bloodbath. in the country. How did Ethiopia, whose arrival in power of Abiy Ahmed in 2018 upset the political landscape, come to this? And what will be the consequences of the conflict for the country and for the region? Yohannes Gedamu, Senior Lecturer in Political Science at Georgia Gwinnett College, responded to the Africa Point.

Africa Point: Since the attack on a military base in Tigray on November 4, Ethiopia has entered a war within its own borders. Where do you locate the roots of this conflict?

Yohannes Gedamu : For 27 years, from 1991 to 2018, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition was officially in power. But in reality, it is one of its components, the TPLF, which governs through its chief who has become head of state, Meles Zenawi. This period, which followed the Derg, was marked by corruption and human rights violations. This is why the Ethiopians, and in the lead the representatives of the Oromo and Amhara peoples, expressed their discontent in large demonstrations in 2018. A winning strategy, because the ERPDF then engaged in various reforms, on the political plan and economic. They even push the Prime Minister and dolphin of Meles Zenawi, Halemariam Desalegn, to resign. To replace him, the EPRDF chooses Ahmed Abiy, an Oromo. Upon coming to power, the new leader launched a series of reforms. It wasn’t all perfect, he made mistakes. In my opinion, his government has not sufficiently taken the measure of the security challenge that awaited it in the country.

As for the TPLF, it did not look very favorably on the actions of this new Prime Minister, who was trying to deconstruct what he had put in place for nearly thirty years. With Abiy Ahmed, its members lost positions of influence: two months after taking office, the Prime Minister sacked Getachew Assefa, chief of intelligence, and the chief of staff of the army Samora Yunis, two senior TPLF executives. Many of its leaders have left Addis Ababa for Mekele, the capital of Tigray. It was from there that they formed many militias and police forces, in opposition to the federal authorities. The ground was therefore ready for an upcoming conflict between the powers that be and the TPLF. The attack of November 4 was prepared, premeditated. The objective of the TPLF forces is to take the strongholds of the federal army, to better control the region.

Can this conflict also be correlated with the economic crisis that the region and the whole country are preparing to go through?

It’s a factor to take into account, but I don’t think this conflict is directly related to it. If this is a challenge facing all the countries of the world, I believe that in Ethiopia the economic difficulties will be less. In this country where 80% of the population lives in rural areas, the crisis will have less impact, as long as farmers can maintain their activities. Even if the invasion of locusts observed this year has greatly weakened the area. The authorities have also sent army helicopters to combat this scourge.

What about the reaction of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Nobel Peace Prize winner, since the start of the conflict? Is the military response the most appropriate?

I believe that when you are the recipient of such an award, a lot is expected of you. And inevitably, it influences your reactions. In his reception speech, the Prime Minister, a former soldier, himself spoke of the brutality of the war. He had of course assured to do everything to prevent Ethiopia from further conflicts. But this time, he didn’t have much of a choice. Certainly, the national army, the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF), controls 70 to 80% of Tigray. But its capital Mekele remains in the hands of the TPLF. If Abiy Ahmed gave them 72 hours to surrender, it is because he wants to avoid another massacre of civilians, like that of Mai Kadra where 600 people were killed, according to the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) [le président du Tigré, Debretsion Gebremichael, a démenti à l’AFP toute implication des troupes du TPLF dans ce massacre NDLR ]. The Prime Minister wants to limit the damage as much as possible.

Does this conflict sound like an admission of failure of Abiy Ahmed’s policy? When he took power in 2018, he posed as Ethiopia’s “unifier”.

Believe me, many Ethiopians today think the Prime Minister has been far too patient so far. And that this policy has left the TPLF a lot of time to prepare for the current offensive, and resist the government response. Abiy Ahmed also waited to be attacked – on November 4 – to act. I think he reacted in the most adequate way. If he had done differently, it would have threatened the security of the entire country. Opinions differ a lot on this, but if you go to Addis Ababa, you will see that most people will say they are relieved of a possible debacle of the TPLF, an organization which has not left good memories for Ethiopians.

In this context, is a political dialogue possible?

It must be encouraged. Dialogue is the most prudent strategy and efforts must be made in this direction. But on the other hand, I note with sadness that the TPLF has rejected all such attempts, whether they come from Abiy Ahmed, community representatives, Elders, Orthodox leaders or the Ethiopian Reconciliation Commission. . A lot of influential people, athletes, like Haile Gebresilassie, tried to negotiate. It did not work. The leaders of the TPLF stand firm.

For them, Abiy Ahmed is not legitimate because he was not elected. Since May, the postponement of the elections due to the Covid-19 pandemic decided by Parliament has fueled their resentment. In their eyes, the Prime Minister and his government no longer have authority, and for them, this postponement is illegal. That is why they organized their own regional election in September. In all illegality since the Ethiopian Constitution only allows elections if they are organized by the National Electoral Commission. This shook the authorities and the leadership of Abiy Ahmed. In this context, I doubt that a dialogue between the parties can see the light of day.

What will be the political consequences of this conflict on the region and on the whole country? Can the federal system be reformed?

It must be, it is a certainty. Many people think that this system protects them and their communities. But Ethiopia has nearly 80. The current system cannot treat them all equally. Since 1994 and the entry into the Constitution of ethnic federalism, history has proven it. Today Ethiopia is the country with the most internally displaced people in the world. In 2018, their number increased from 1.6 million at the start of the year, to nearly 3 million twelve months later. I am not saying that we have to radically change the system. But the government must take this problem into account, initiate reforms and promote cooperation between regions to reduce inter-community conflicts and finally build national unity. It is possible, because today the central government is very strong. To help it, it will also need to obtain the support of its neighbors: Sudan, which has long supported the former regime, Djibouti and Somalia.

Could this crisis also have economic consequences? Can investors be put off by what is happening in Ethiopia?

If the government is not able to guarantee stability and peace in the country, the situation could indeed become difficult. The authorities must unite their efforts to restore law and order to the region. Because it is stability that attracts investors to a country, and allows economic prosperity to settle there permanently.

How are the countries of the region positioned in relation to the current situation?

Sudan, in the midst of transition, is an ally of Ethiopia. And Abdallah Hamdok’s government, without interfering in Ethiopian policy, has nonetheless expressed its support for the ongoing operation. The country is currently hosting thousands of refugees who have fled the Tigray region. Somalia and Kenya are quite far from what is happening in the North. But relations with Addis Ababa are good. I do not think that the conflict can weaken the whole sub-region, because I believe that the national army will regain control of the situation soon. I hope without collateral damage to civilians. I recognize that this is not necessarily the theory of the greatest number. Many believe that this conflict will destabilize all the neighbors. This is not mine.

Despite the attempts of the African Union, which appointed three former presidents to initiate negotiations, can this reaction serve him at the continental level, he who has so far enjoyed a certain leadership?

Abiy Ahmed is very well regarded in Africa, it is a fact. I do not think that the current crisis can harm him in this regard. Ethiopia remains a very influential country on the continent, and I want to make it clear that the ongoing conflict is not being played out between two states, but within a country itself. It is a national crisis. It is the sovereignty of the country that is at stake. You know, in recent years I have written many articles critical of Abiy Ahmed and his government. But this time I think that, like many academics and activists who do not usually support him, his action is going in the right direction.