EUR/CHF stable before the ECB’s policy decision, EURO driven by optimism around the tariff agreement between the US and the EU

• EUR/CHF pairs intradic losses, bouncing from a minimum session of 0.9293 and rising above 0.9300 during American negotiation hours.
• The operators are relocated before Thursday’s ECB meeting, as the expectations grow that the Central Bank Pause its rate cuts cycle
• EUR/CHF remains caught in a narrow consolidation range of 0.9300-0.9430 since April.

The euro (EUR) reverses its intra -re -losses in front of the Swiss Franco (CHF) on Tuesday, with the EUR/CHF crossing bouncing to quote around 0.9331 during the American negotiation hours. Previously in the session, the pair fell to an intradic minimum of 0.9293, but found a firm support near the lower limit of its consolidation range of several weeks, since the market participants were cautious before the monetary policy decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday.

The euro receives some support from optimism around a possible commercial advance between the United States and the European Union, according to Financial Times. The report suggests that both parties are close to an agreement on a 15%base tariff structure, modeled according to the recent agreement between the US and Japan.

The slight rebound in EUR/CHF also reflects the growing uncertainty about the next ECB movement, with the operators reducing the expectations of aggressive cuts of rates in the middle of mixed signals of the recent eurozone data. The ECB is expected to maintain or pause its rate cuts cycle at Thursday’s meeting, maintaining the deposit rate at 2.00%. While inflation remains close to the goal of 2% of the ECB, all eyes will be put in the guide of President Christine Lagarde, especially as inflation cools and economic feeling improves throughout the eurozone.

Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has already trimmed the rates to zero and continues to adopt a more moderate tone, with those responsible for policies open to greater flexibility if deflation risks persist. This growing divergence of policies has acted as a stabilizer force for the EUR/CHF, avoiding deeper falls and keeping the anchoring inside a narrow range of 0.9300-0.9430. However, a moderate surprise of the ECB or any new SNB intervention risk signal could shake this fragile balance.

From a technical point of view, the EUR/CHF crossing remains stuck below the simple mobile average (SMA) of 20 days, which also serves as the Bollinger average band and is currently located at 0.9331. This level continues to limit the upward attempts, acting as a dynamic resistance within the broader consolidation.

Bollinger bands are narrowing, suggesting a reduction in volatility and a possible accumulation for a break. However, until a decisive movement occurs outside the range of 0.9300-0.9430, lateral action is likely to persist.

However, the relative force index (RSI) is gradually increasing, currently around 47, even below the neutral brand of 50. This points to a tentative but emerging buying interest, although the impulse is still fragile while operators expect a clearer directional signal. Meanwhile, the average directional index (ADX) in 23.30 suggests that the strength of the trend is gradually built, but remains below the 25 key threshold, indicating that directional conviction is still missing.

A sustained rupture below the support level of 0.9300 would mark a bassist change, potentially exposing levels down around 0.9250. On the contrary, a rebound from the current levels and a closure above the 20 -day SMA could see at the crossroads reinct the upper limit of the range about 0.9430, with the following resistance seen in the psychological level of 0.9500.