Some headlines about French politics could have mixed on a bad day for the euro yesterday, although the lack of repercussions on the Oat-Bund differential means that the effect should have been marginal, if perhaps, says the Durade analyst of ING, Francesco Pesole.
Eurusd is still an extension of the broadest feeling of the dollar
“The French prime minister announced that two national holidays would be eliminated to relieve the pressure on the deficit. That caused Marine Le Pen of the national regrouping to threaten to overthrow the government unless the proposal was removed. The history of the French deficit has been very much in the background lately, but yesterday it probably served as a reminder that it is a time bomb for the feeling of the EU. Repercussions in currencies in the coming months. “
“For now, Eurusd remains an extension of the broadest feeling of the dollar. We believe that 1.16 can be a good balance unless the data contributes a lot to the macroeconomic history of the United States in the next few days. However, the risks are that the dollar obtains a little more support from a hard line reevaluation and the EUR/USD begins to look at 1.15.”
Source: Fx Street

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