EUR rises marginally as inflation expectations of the ECB increase – Scotiabank

The euro (EUR) is entering Wednesday’s American session with a marginal gain of 0.1% against the US dollar (USD), being an intermediate performance between the G10 in a generally quiet trade, says Shaun Osborne, head of Scotiabank’s chief of FX.

Complicating the current inclination towards cuts

“The currency remains within a range and the publications have been limited to the data of inflation expectations of the ECB. The measure of inflation expectations at 1 year rose for the second month, reaching 3.1%, its highest level since February 2024.”

“This presents a complicated development for the ECB, since policy formulators seek to determine the perspective for rates, in the context of their current moderate posture and the inclination towards additional cuts in the short term.”

“The chief economist Lane has mentioned that the key rate of the ECB will not be reduced below 1.5%, approximately 100 basic points below their current level. The markets are currently valuing almost a complete cut of 25 basic points for the June meeting and 67 basic relaxation points for December.”

“The trend since February is upward, despite the flat range that seems to have developed between the maximum of April (1,1573) and the local minimum of May 12 (1,1065). The impulse indicators remain bullish and we seek short -term support around 1,1280 and resistance above 1,1400.”

Source: Fx Street

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