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EUR/USD: A fall below 1.0300 is more likely than a bounce towards 1.0500 – ING

The EUR/USD failed to break the 1.0500 level yesterday and has fallen back to the 1.0350/1.0400 area. ING economists expect the pair to drop below 1.0300.

Few signs of a reduction in inflation

Eurozone exposure to China is a key factor to watch for the Euroand could easily offset the benefits of lower energy prices.”

“The consensus is for German headline inflation to stabilize at 10.4% and eurozone numbers to slow slightly tomorrow. It’s hard to see this significantly altering the ECB’s narrative, but a figure above consensus could lead markets to seriously consider a 75 basis point interest rate hike in December (currently valued at 61 basis points).”

“With everything, ECB expectations have often not translated into a stronger Euro, and we continue to see the dollar call the shots in EUR/USD moves. Right now, we believe a drop below 1.0300 is more likely than a bounce towards 1.0500.”

Source: Fx Street

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