- US dollar and US stock indices mixed on Monday.
- The euro rises against the dollar, the British pound and the Swiss franc.
- Investors are watching the talks between Ukraine and Russia, ahead of the FOMC meeting.
The EUR/USD found support above 1.0930 and rose again towards the daily high it reached in European hours at 1.0989, buoyed by a stronger Euro and mixed US Dollar.
Talks and the Fed
The key driver of price action remains the war in Ukraine. Volatility remains high, even across currencies. The economic calendar shows the US producer price index will be presented on Tuesday and on Wednesday, the critical event of the week: the Fed decision.
The FOMC is expected to raise the fed funds rate by 25 bps on Wednesday. If the Fed delivers, it will be the first time since 2018, and the focus will be on signals about the future path of monetary policy. Rabobank analysts forecast four consecutive rate hikes of 25 bps each in March, May, June and July. “We also expect the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions on global economic activity to be felt in the US more broadly in the second half of the year, prompting the FOMC to pause for a while. the rest of the year to make sure a recession is avoided, before resuming the upward cycle.”
Ahead of the FOMC meeting and also fueled by risk aversion, US yields trade at monthly/year highs, supporting the dollar. In Europe, rising yields are also what are keeping EUR/USD away from the recent low.
Looking at 1.1000
EUR/USD is holding on to daily gains, facing resistance at 1.1000, not just a round number, but also where the 20 SMA on four hour charts is. A recovery above should add EUR support, exposing next resistance at 1.1035. Above, next resistance levels could be seen at 1.1070 and 1.1095.
If the pair fails to recapture 1.1000 over the next few hours, a possible drop back to 1.0935 should be considered. The zone also contains the 20-hour SMA. Below, attention would turn to 1.0895/1.0900, below, downside pressure should intensify.
Technical levels
EUR/USD
| Panorama | |
|---|---|
| Last Price Today | 1.0975 |
| Today’s Daily Change | 0.0064 |
| Today’s Daily Change % | 0.59 |
| Today’s Daily Opening | 1.0911 |
| Trends | |
|---|---|
| 20 Daily SMA | 1.1167 |
| 50 Daily SMA | 1,127 |
| 100 Daily SMA | 1.1326 |
| 200 Daily SMA | 1.1561 |
| levels | |
|---|---|
| Previous Daily High | 1.1044 |
| Previous Daily Minimum | 1.0902 |
| Previous Maximum Weekly | 1.1121 |
| Previous Weekly Minimum | 1.0806 |
| Monthly Prior Maximum | 1.1495 |
| Previous Monthly Minimum | 1.1106 |
| Daily Fibonacci 38.2% | 1.0956 |
| Daily Fibonacci 61.8% | 1,099 |
| Daily Pivot Point S1 | 1.0861 |
| Daily Pivot Point S2 | 1.0811 |
| Daily Pivot Point S3 | 1.0719 |
| Daily Pivot Point R1 | 1.1002 |
| Daily Pivot Point R2 | 1.1094 |
| Daily Pivot Point R3 | 1.1144 |
Source: Fx Street
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