EUR/USD bounces up while attention focuses on tariffs and US fiscal health.

• The euro recovers as the impact of the strong non -agricultural payroll report is faded.
• The growing concerns about tariffs and US fiscal health are adding pressure on the US dollar.
• Negotiation volumes are expected to remain contained on Friday with US markets closed by the independence day holiday.

The Eur/USD It is cutting some losses on Friday, quoting in 1,1785 at the time of writing, after bouncing from minimums of 1,1715 on Thursday. The dollar is giving up subsequent gains to non -agricultural payrolls with US US markets closed by the independence day holiday, and the investor approach moves towards the deadline of US tariffs of July 9.

In the light of low progress in commercial agreements, Trump said he will begin sending letters to the commercial partners on Friday, informing them about the taxes that will apply to their products. Market concerns that high tariffs could increase inflation and reduce economic growth have been an important peso for the US dollar since the “April day”.

Beyond that, Trump’s “great and beautiful fiscal bill” passed the scrutiny of the House of Representatives on Thursday and is likely to become law in the next few days. The Congress Budget Office estimated that the bill will increase the current fiscal deficit of 39.2 billion dollars by 3.3 billion dollars over the next 10 years, which generated fears of a debt crisis in the world’s main economy and has been another source of negative pressure for the US dollar.

The US dollar jumped on Thursday since the report of non -agricultural payroll showed that the US economy created many more jobs than expected in June, highlighting the resilience of the labor market and discouraging hopes for clippings of imminent rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The possibilities of a Fed cut in July have fallen to 5%, from about 20% before the publication of the data, according to the Fed Watch tool of the CME Group.

What moves the market today: limited trade with US markets

• The EUR/USD is quoting within Thursday’s range, on the way to moderate advance in the week. It is likely that the torque will pass through an “internal day” with the volume of negotiation content, with the US market closed by the festive of Independence Day and the Eurozone calendar lacking first level data publications.
• On Thursday, the US non -agricultural payrolls surprised, showing an increase of 147,000 in net jobs, exceeding the expectations of a reading of 110,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%from 4.2%, compared to the expectations of an increase to 4.3%.
• Later on Thursday, the US ISM Services PMI showed a stronger rebound than expected in the sector’s business activity. The June index improved 50.8 from reading 49.9 in May, also exceeding the expectations of a 50.5 reading.
• The data published on Friday showed that the factory orders in Germany fell 1.4% in May, well above the contraction of 0.1% forecast by market analysts, after a 1.6% growth in April. These figures add evidence of the weak economic perspectives in the main economy of the Eurozone and will probably weigh on the euro.
• Likewise, the industrial production of France fell 0.5% in May after a 1.4% drop in April, compared to market expectations of an improvement of 0.3%.
• On Thursday, the Eurozone services activity data revealed that the sector grew again in June. HCOB’s final services PMI was reviewed at 50.5 from the preliminary estimate of 50.0, after a reading of 49.7 in May. However, the report warned about a weak demand despite the improvement in business feeling. The impact on the euro was minimal.

EUR/USD is losing impulse with the 1,1800 area keeping the bulls

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The EUR/USD has been consolidating profits during most of the week after having reached its highest levels in almost four years in 1,1830. However, the torque is losing impulse, unable to find a significant acceptance above 1,1800, with the relative force index (RSI) of 14 periods testing the level 50 that divides the bassist territory of the bassist.

The lowest minimum on Thursday is another bearish signal, although the torque has not confirmed below the area of ​​1,1745-1,1750 (maximum of June 26 and 27 and minimum of July 2). Below here, the minimum of June 30, in 1,1710, and the minimum of June 27 in 1,1680 would be the possible downward goals.

On the positive side, the torque could find resistance at the level of 1,1800, where the resistance of the trend line of Mondays, before the aforementioned maximum in 1,1825, and the Fibonacci extension level of 127.2% of the reversion of July 1 and 2 in 1,1850 is located.