EUR/USD could return below 1.0800 – UOB

Lee Sue Ann, Economist at UOB Group, and Quek Ser Leang, Market Strategist, point out that EUR/USD risks weakening further in the coming weeks.

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24 hour view: Yesterday we expected EUR/USD to trade in a 1.0870/1.0915 range. We do not anticipate a pick-up in volatility. After rising to a high of 1.0930, EUR/USD plunged to a low of 1.0831 and then closed at 1.0844 (-0.44%). The rapid decline has gained momentum and EUR/USD is likely to weaken further today. A clear break of the main support at 1.0830 could trigger a drop to 1.0790 before the risk of a bounce increases. Resistance lies at 1.0870, followed by 1.0890.

Next 1-3 weeks: Yesterday we highlighted that “the bearish momentum is beginning to subside, albeit timidly”. We held the view that “only a break of 1.0930 would indicate that EUR/USD is not ready to go down to 1.0830”. We were not entirely expecting the subsequent price action as EUR/USD rallied to 1.0930 (EUR/USD did not clearly break above this level), then fell sharply to 1.0830 pip (1.0831 low). . Bearish momentum has “fuelled”, and a break of 1.0830 is likely. The next level to focus on below 1.0830 is a sizeable support level near 1.0790. To the upside, the “strong resistance” level of 1.0930 has eased slightly to 1.0915. Breaking above this “strong resistance” level would mean that EUR/USD weakness has stabilized.

Source: Fx Street

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