The ECB policy decision is expected later today (20:15 Singapore time), followed by Lagarde’s press conference (20:45 SGT). Lower CPI figures in the eurozone, Germany and Spain, as well as lower manufacturing PMI readings, raised expectations that the ECB should be on track to cut rates again, OCBC FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
The decision to cut rates is more or less decided
“Markets have priced in a 25bp cut at this meeting and a roughly 38bp cut for the rest of the year (another 1.5 cut). While the rate cut decision is more or less decided, the focus is on Lagarde’s press conference and the staff macroeconomic projection. So far, ECB officials have not been overtly dovish, and officials seemed to be pushing for a more gradual pace when it comes to policy easing.”
“Potentially, the ECB could even turn out to be a non-event if officials reiterate that policy is not on a pre-set cycle and decision-making remains data-dependent. EUR was last seen at 1.1010 levels. Bearish momentum on the daily chart remains intact while the RSI fell. Risks are tilted to the downside for now.”
“Support at 1.0970 (50 DMA, 38.2% Fib retracement of the 2024 low to high), 1.09 (50% fibo). Resistance at 1.1060 (23.6% fibo), 1.1080 (21 DMA).”
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
