- EUR/USD lost another fifth of a percent on Tuesday.
- The results of the ECB banking survey cut the bullish potential of the Euro.
- The ECB is widely expected to deliver another 25 bps rate cut this week.
EUR/USD fell further on the bearish side on Tuesday, declining by a fifth of a percent and sliding below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). Price action closed below the 1.0900 area for the first time since early August. The pair has fallen almost 3% from late September peaks just north of the 1.1200 zone.
European banks generally reported negative repercussions from the European Central Bank’s (ECB) rate cut in the summer, with euro zone banks reporting that although credit standards have remained broadly unchanged and have actually eased For loans to households, consumer credit conditions remain tight. A rebound in demand for mortgage loans is based exclusively on the anticipation of further rate cuts, implying that consumers are overborrowing in the short term, while the net interest income of EU banks as a result of the decisions The ECB’s rate trend has turned negative for the first time since 2022.
The ECB’s next rate decision on Thursday is widely expected to be a quarter-point cut in the main deposit rate, with markets widely forecasting a 25 bps rate cut, while the main deposit rate is expected to ECB refinancing will be cut by a similar 25 bps to 3.4% from 3.65%.
In other EUR/USD data, US retail sales figures for September are scheduled for Thursday’s US market session. US retail sales are expected to recover in the month of September, with a forecast increase to 0.3% monthly from 0.1% previously.
EUR/USD Price Forecast
EUR/USD has fallen back below the 200-day EMA and lost the 1.0900 zone. The pair has closed in the red in all but three of the last 12 consecutive trading days. Oversold warnings on the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicator imply that the short-term bearish momentum in EUR/USD may have come to an end, leaving the pair primed for a bullish bounce from the 200 EMA days.
EUR/USD Daily Chart
The Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency of the 20 countries of the European Union that belong to the euro zone. It is the second most traded currency in the world, behind the US dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily volume of more than $2.2 trillion per day. EUR/USD is the most traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% of all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2% ).
The European Central Bank (ECB), headquartered in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank of the euro zone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy The ECB’s main mandate is to maintain price stability, which means controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its main instrument is to raise or lower interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – tend to benefit the Euro and vice versa. The Governing Council of the ECB takes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by the heads of the eurozone’s national banks and six permanent members, including ECB President Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), are an important econometric data for the euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if it exceeds the 2% target set by the ECB, it is forced to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to their peers tend to benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases measure the health of the economy and can influence the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, manufacturing and services PMIs, employment and consumer sentiment surveys can influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment, but it may encourage the ECB to raise interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Conversely, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. The economic data for the four largest economies in the eurozone (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they represent 75% of the eurozone economy.
Another important release for the euro is the trade balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports during a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after export products, its currency will appreciate due to the additional demand created by foreign buyers wishing to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net trade balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
