- The EUR/USD falls sharply below 1,0850 since investors are cautious about the perspectives of the commercial relationship between the EU and the US.
- The US president, Donald Trump, threatens to respond to the contradictions proposed by the EU.
- Investors expect the meeting of German leaders on a debt restructuring plan.
The EUR/USD collapses below 1,0850 in the American session on Thursday. The par descends since the euro (EUR) weakens before the new escalation in the possible war of tariffs between the European Union (EU) and the US on Wednesday, the president of the USA, Donald Trump, said he would respond to the contradictions proposed by the EU on US goods for a value of 26 billion euros. Trump’s comments arrived just before the meeting with Irish prime minister, Micheál Martin, after which he said that “there is a massive deficit we have with Ireland and with other countries” and added that he will impose reciprocal tariffs to them for taking advantage of the US.
During Wednesday’s European negotiation hours, the president of the European Commission (CE), Ursula von der Leyen, launched ‘rapid and proportional countermeasures’ to US imports in the EU in response to tariffs on steel. Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, which entered into force on Thursday. Contrary to the announcement of contracels of the CE, a member of the European Central Bank (ECB) and governor of the Bank of Finland said during the European negotiation hours on Thursday that the EU should seek “negotiated solutions for US tariffs,” encouraging the Trump administration to avoid these unnecessary and “harmful tariffs.”
The commercial war between the shared continent and the US will strongly impact the German economy, knowing that it is the largest exporter of the Eurozone towards the USA in the European negotiation hours on Thursday, the BCE member and president of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, warned that US commercial tariffs on the European Union (EU) could push for “Germany To the recession this year “in an interview with BBC News.
Meanwhile, operations are also cautious before the meeting of German leaders to discuss debt restructuring to increase defense spending and stimulate economic growth. It is expected that German debt reforms will be approved in the lower house of Parliament on Tuesday, since the German Green Party, led by Franziska Bantner, agreed to negotiate with the probable next chancellor Friedrich Merz and the co-leader of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), Lars Klingbei.
The euro has exceeded lately since investors expect the German debt restructuring plan to be inflationary to the economy. Such scenario would force operators to reduce moderate bets of the European Central Bank (ECB).
American dollar today
The lower table shows the percentage of US dollar change (USD) compared to the main coins today. The US dollar was the strongest currency against the Australian dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.26% | 0.10% | -0.22% | 0.10% | 0.50% | 0.46% | 0.23% | |
| EUR | -0.26% | -0.15% | -0.42% | -0.17% | 0.25% | 0.22% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | -0.10% | 0.15% | -0.27% | -0.01% | 0.40% | 0.38% | 0.16% | |
| JPY | 0.22% | 0.42% | 0.27% | 0.25% | 0.67% | 0.63% | 0.43% | |
| CAD | -0.10% | 0.17% | 0.01% | -0.25% | 0.43% | 0.39% | 0.17% | |
| Aud | -0.50% | -0.25% | -0.40% | -0.67% | -0.43% | -0.02% | -0.22% | |
| NZD | -0.46% | -0.22% | -0.38% | -0.63% | -0.39% | 0.02% | -0.18% | |
| CHF | -0.23% | 0.03% | -0.16% | -0.43% | -0.17% | 0.22% | 0.18% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the main currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the contribution currency is selected in the upper row. For example, if you choose the US dollar of the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese yen, the percentage change shown in the box will represent the USD (base)/JPY (quotation).
What moves the market today: the EUR/USD weakens while the US dollar gains ground
- An acute corrective movement in the EUR/USD is also driven by a decent recovery in the US dollar (USD) in the middle of a greater demand for safe refuge assets due to the tariff policies of the US president, Trump. The US dollar index (DXY), which follows the value of the dollar against six main currencies, jumps about 104.00 after recovering from its minimum of four months of 103.20.
- The dollar recovers despite the fact that inflation to the consumer and the producer in the US has cooled faster than expected in February. In the 12 months until February, the general IPP increased 3.2%, slower than estimates of 3.3% and the increase of 3.7% seen in January. In the same period, the underlying IPP – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – slowed down at a faster rate to 3.4% from 3.5% expectations and the previous reading of 3.8%. Monthly, the underlying IPP deflated 0.1% while the general figure remained flat.
- The control signs of inflationary pressures are bad for the US dollar as they force operators to increase bets that support the Federal Reserve (Fed) to make monetary policy moreland. According to the CME Fedwatch tool, there is a 76% probability that the FED cuts interest rates at the June meeting.
- Looking ahead, the next important trigger for the US dollar will be the two-day monetary policy meeting on March 18-19. It is almost certain that the Central Bank will maintain stable interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. Investors will pay close attention to the guidance of the Fed on inflation and economic perspectives under the leadership of Donald Trump.
Technical analysis: EUR/USD maintains the key level of 1,0800
The EUR/USD falls vertically to about 1,0820 on Thursday, extending the correction after registering a new maximum of five months about 1,0950 on Tuesday. However, the long -term perspective of the main currency pair is bullish since it remains above the 200 -day exponential (EMA) mobile average, which is negotiated around 1,0650.
The 14 -day relative force (RSI) index remains above 60.00, suggesting that the bullish impulse remains intact.
Looking down, the maximum of December 6, 1,0630 will act as the main support zone for the torque. On the contrary, the psychological level of 1.1000 will be a key barrier to the euros of the euro.
Economic indicator
Production Price Index (Yoy)
The production price index (IPP) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics It is an estimate of the changes in the prices received by domestic goods producers in each of the stages of processing (raw materials, intermediate materials and final goods). A result higher than expected is bullish for the dollar, while a result less than consensus is bassist.
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Last publication: Mar Mar 13, 2025 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Current: 3.2%
Dear: 3.3%
Previous: 3.5%
Fountain: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
