- The euro is falling while the US dollar bounces from long -term minimal.
- A cautious Powell and a strong report of employment offers in the US have provided some support to the dollar.
- The EUR/USD is under a growing bearish impulse after rejection above 1,1800.
The Eur/USD Record moderate losses on Wednesday, quoting about 1,1780 at the time of writing. The US dollar (USD) is a bit firmer, after the solid US employment data and an inflexible president of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Jerome Powellwho maintained his position of “waiting and seeing” in the forum of the European Central Bank (ECB) in Sintra.
The euro (EUR) weakened from maximum of several years in 1,1830 on Tuesday and fails to return above 1,1800 on Wednesday. However, the general trend remains positive, with the PAR consolidating profits after a rally of almost 4% in June and about 14% in the first half of the year.
The US dollar, on the other hand, has been beaten by market concerns about the impact of the broad fiscal bill of US President Donald Trump in a high debt of the US government and the lack of progress in commercial agreements, which could lead to higher tariffs from July 9.
Beyond that, the attacks of the US president to the president of the Central Bank, pressing him to loosen monetary policy, have raised speculations about the independence of the Federal Reserve and are eroding the status of the US dollar as the world reserve currency.
In the macroeconomic front, the US Jolts job offers showed US It improved beyond expectations, with the production subscript by returning to expansion levels for the first time since February, and prices increasing. These figures have given a new boost to the US dollar.
The Eurozone data were also positive on Tuesday, since German manufacturing activity improved and unemployment in Germany increased less than forecast. In addition, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) confirmed that inflation remains stable near the objective of the ECB. In general, data that support the euro.
The Eurozone unemployment rate and a speech by the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, will attract attention during the European session on Wednesday. In the US, the approach will be in the change of ADP employment for June, which will frame the publication of the Non -agricultural payrolls (NFP) on Thursday.
Euro price today
The lower table shows the percentage of euro change (EUR) compared to the main currencies today. The euro was the strongest currency in front of the Japanese yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.11% | 0.06% | 0.23% | 0.03% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.08% | |
| EUR | -0.11% | -0.08% | 0.12% | -0.09% | -0.04% | 0.00% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | -0.06% | 0.08% | 0.20% | -0.02% | -0.02% | 0.06% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | -0.23% | -0.12% | -0.20% | -0.18% | -0.19% | -0.18% | -0.16% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.08% | 0.05% | |
| Aud | -0.05% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.19% | -0.04% | 0.11% | 0.04% | |
| NZD | -0.01% | -0.01% | -0.06% | 0.18% | -0.08% | -0.11% | -0.03% | |
| CHF | -0.08% | 0.02% | -0.03% | 0.16% | -0.05% | -0.04% | 0.03% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the main currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the contribution currency is selected in the upper row. For example, if you choose the euro of the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage change shown in the box will represent the EUR (base)/USD (quotation).
What moves the market today: the strong US data and a firm Powell give some air to the USD
- The president of the FED, Jerome Powell, dismissed President Trump’s attacks in his speech in Sintra and maintained that the Central Bank needs to “wait and learn more” on the potential impact of commercial tariffs on inflation before cutting interest rates.
- On Tuesday, the US Labor Statistics Office reported 7,769 million in Jolts job offers, exceeding 7.3 million expectations. These figures highlight the resilience of the labor market and leave investors waiting for the reading of the non -agricultural payroll on Thursday to obtain more clues about the next decisions of the Fed.
- The USM manufacturing PMI of the United States advanced to 49.0 in June from 48.5 in May and beyond reading 48.8 forecast by market analysts. The production subscript jumped at 50.3 from 45.4 in May, but the employment index was unexpectedly deteriorated, compensating for the positive impact of the report.
- In the Eurozone, the manufacturing activity improved something in June, with the PMI going up to 49.5 from the reading of 49.4 of the previous month. These figures are still within levels of contraction, but exceed expectations of a stable level of 49.4 and mark their highest reading in the last three years.
- The change in unemployment in Germany increased by 11K in June, below the expected 15K, and well below the 34K May increase. The unemployment rate remained stable at 6.3% compared to the expectations of a 6.4% increase.
- The preliminary figures of the IPC of the Eurozone for June confirmed stable inflationary pressures, with prices increasing to 2%year -on -year, from 1.9%, and the stable underlying inflation by 2.3%.
- Later on Wednesday, the Eurozone unemployment rate is expected to stay at 6.2% in May. The president of the ECB, Lagarde, will speak again at the summit of central bankers in Sintra, but it is unlikely to say something new about the bank’s monetary policy plans.
- The culminating point of today will be the change of US employment of the US, which is expected to show a net increase of 95K in June, after a 37K reading in May.
The EUR/USD is in a bassist correction from maximum of several years above 1,1800
The EUR/USD is cutting profits, after a rally of more than 2% in just over a week, reaching almost four years in 1,1830. The pair has not been able to confirm above 1,1800 and quotes downward on Wednesday, while the US dollar recovers lost ground.
A look at the 1 hour graph It shows a lower maximum in 1,1810 on Wednesday, which highlights the softest impulse of the torque with the indicator of the Relative Force Index (RSI) of 14 periods falling to negative territory and a small shoulder-shrimp pattern (H&C) in progress.
The H&C pattern line is at the minimum of Tuesday at 1,1760. Below here, the measured objective is 1,1690, the minimum of June 27 is 1,1680, and the minimum of June 26, in 1,1650. This area offers significant support for a bassist correction.
On the positive side, the immediate resistance is at the maximum intradic of 1,1810 before Tuesday in 1,1830. Above here, the Fibonacci extension level of 261.8% of the negotiation range from June 26 to June 30 is 1,1850.
EMPLOYMENT – FREQUENT QUESTIONS
The conditions of the labor market are a key element to evaluate the health of an economy and, therefore, a key factor for the assessment of currencies. A high level of employment, or a low level of unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and, therefore, for economic growth, which drives the value of the local currency. On the other hand, a very adjusted labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to cover vacancies – can also have implications in inflation levels and, therefore, in monetary policy, since a low labor supply and high demand lead to higher wages.
The rhythm to which salaries grow in an economy is key to political leaders. A high salary growth means that households have more money to spend, which usually translates into increases in consumer goods. Unlike other more volatile inflation sources, such as energy prices, salary growth is considered a key component of the underlying and persistent inflation, since it is unlikely that salary increases will fall apart. Central banks around the world pay close attention to salary growth data when deciding their monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to the conditions of the labor market depends on its objectives. Some central banks have explicitly related mandates to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The United States Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the double mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the only mandate of the European Central Bank (ECB) is to maintain inflation under control. Even so, and despite the mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for the authorities given its importance as an indicator of the health of the economy and its direct relationship with inflation.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
