The 3% drop against the Dollar represents the worst performance of the euro in four quarters. The economists of CIBC Capital Markets analyze the prospects of EUR/USD.
Politics and climate are the Euro’s immediate headwinds
With macro headwinds showing no signs of immediate easing, we foresee scope for further EUR bearish positioning.
The ECB can be expected to continue draining liquidity from the system until 2024, which will contain the falls of the euro. However, we can also expect the EUR’s immediate headwinds to persist into early Q4 2023, especially given the political risks looming over the upcoming elections and the weather.
EUR/USD – fourth quarter 2023: 1.03 | first quarter of 2024: 1.05
Source: Fx Street

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