From the speech on the reciprocal tariffs of US President Trump on April 2, EUR is the second G10 currency with the best performance after the CHF, considered safe refuge, reports Rabobank’s foreign exchange analyst Jane Foley.
The EUR remains firm in the midst of tariff turbulence
“The EUR resilience has arisen from optimism triggered by the relaxation of the debt brake of Germany in March and by the generalized assumption that this was an event that changes the rules of the game for the region. The EUR was further driven by rotation outside the US assets caused by the fears that Trump’s tariff trigger an increase in inflation. “
“The rotation trade has stagnated since then. But, while the S&P 500 has reached a series of new historical maximums since June, the USD continues to drag, weakened by the expectations of more aggressive rates cuts by the Fed.”
“Raboresearch has adjusted its forecasts and now provides four feat cuts from the Fed in 2026, in addition to a cut in September. That said, the movement is mostly discounted and, since there are many good news reflected in the EUR, we remain reluctant to bring our forecast of the EUR/USD beyond our goal of 1.20, although we have advanced it to a perspective of 9 months. In fact, in fact, assuming that the fears of recession USA continues to decrease, we continue to see short coverage pressure risk in favor of the USD in a perspective of 1 to 3 months and predict a fall to EUR/USD1.15. “
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
