- The euro consolidates profits with the US dollar on the defensive.
- The weak US data and Trump’s attacks to Powell have increased hopes for more interest rate cuts by the Fed.
- The EUR/USD fluctuates around 1,1700 while investors prepare for the publication of the US PERSONAL CONSUMPTION PRICE INDEX (PCE).
The Eur/USD It is appreciated for the seventh consecutive day, but remains limited below the maximum of almost four years of 1,1745 reached on Thursday. The torque is on the way to a weekly rally of 2%, driven by the decrease in geopolitical fears and the growing confidence that the Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed) will cut the interest rates two or even three times in the second half of the year.
president
The attacks of the president of the US, Donald Trump, to the president of the FED, Jerome Powell, and his comments suggesting an early election of a supposedly more Dovish successor, together with the weak economic data of the US and the voices within the Central Bank asking for a less restrictive policy, have increased the hopes of a relief in the interest rates.
The data published this week add evidence of an economic slowdown in the US and point in that direction. On Thursday, the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the first quarter was reviewed down, to a 0.5% contraction from the 0.2% estimated previously, while on Tuesday, the figures of the US Conference Board of the United States revealed a decrease in consumer confidence, which affects economic growth.
In the Eurozone, the markets are still driven by an optimistic wave since the fragile truce between Israel and Iran remains and maintains oil prices at relatively low levels. Beyond that, investors are still hopeful that a greater infrastructure and defense plan, which is expected to be approved after summer, promotes economic activity in the region.
The main approach today is the US PERSONAL CONSUMPTION PRICE INDEX (PCE), which will be observed in search of more clues about the feat cuts calendar of the Fed. Another moderate reading of inflation would consolidate the hopes of a rate cut, probably in September, and could add sale pressure on the US dollar (USD).
Euro price today
The lower table shows the percentage of euro change (EUR) compared to the main currencies today. Euro was the strongest currency in front of the Swiss Franco.
USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | NZD | CHF | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USD | 0.07% | 0.03% | -0.01% | 0.02% | 0.07% | -0.02% | 0.15% | |
EUR | -0.07% | -0.09% | -0.08% | -0.07% | -0.04% | -0.20% | 0.02% | |
GBP | -0.03% | 0.09% | 0.02% | -0.00% | 0.05% | -0.10% | 0.20% | |
JPY | 0.01% | 0.08% | -0.02% | 0.01% | 0.05% | -0.20% | 0.21% | |
CAD | -0.02% | 0.07% | 0.00% | -0.01% | 0.07% | -0.16% | 0.16% | |
Aud | -0.07% | 0.04% | -0.05% | -0.05% | -0.07% | -0.20% | 0.12% | |
NZD | 0.02% | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.16% | 0.20% | 0.33% | |
CHF | -0.15% | -0.02% | -0.20% | -0.21% | -0.16% | -0.12% | -0.33% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the main currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the contribution currency is selected in the upper row. For example, if you choose the euro of the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage change shown in the box will represent the EUR (base)/USD (quotation).
What moves the market today: weak data and Trump pressure on the Fed are hitting the USD
- The US dollar depreciated in general this week. The dollar (DXY) index, which measures the value of the dollar against six main currencies, has lost about 1.7% this week and more than 11% in 2025 so far, beaten by a mixture of a weakened economy, investors’ concerns about Trump’s trade erratic commercial policy and, ultimately, their attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve.
- Trump attacked the president of the Fed, calling him “terrible” and “a mentally average person” after Powell reiterated the precautionary posture of the bank with respect to interest rates, and pronounced on the announcement of his successor after summer, more than six months before the end of his mandate. These comments have increased the hopes of rate cuts by the Fed and, more importantly, they have questioned the independence of the Central Bank, eroding the status of the US dollar as a reserve currency.
- In the scope of macroeconomic data, the US annualized GDP was reviewed down to a 0.5% contraction in the first three months of the year, in the midst of a decrease in consumption, after the increase in Trump rates for imported goods.
- On the other hand, the orders of the US durable goods increased more than expected in May, with a strong increase in aircraft orders. The general reading jumped 16.4%, approximately twice the increase of 8.5% expected by the market, while excluding transport orders, they grew 0.5% compared to the expectations of a flat reading.
- The data of weekly unemployment applications were mixed, with the initial applications of unemployment benefits increasing less than expected, but with the stable continued requests at their highest levels since the period after the pandemic, which reinforces the case of a weakening and adds pressure on the Federal Reserve to further cut the interest rates.
- In Europe, the GFK consumer’s feeling survey in Germany deteriorated to -20.3 for July from -20 in the previous month. The Germans show a growing willingness to save, which weighs on consumption and highlights a feeling of economic uncertainty.
- Today, all eyes will be placed in the publication of the US PCE price index, the preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve, which is expected to show no more evidence of the impact of rates on consumer prices. General inflation is expected to have grown at a constant rate of 0.1% in May, with an interannual growth accelerating to 2.3% from 2.1% in the previous month. The underlying index is also expected to remain unchanged at 0.1% in the month and 2.6% year -on -year, compared to 2.5% in April.
EUR/USD struggles to consolidate above 1,1700
EUR/USD It maintains its bullish trend intact on Friday, favored by the weakness of the US dollar. However, the torque has reached the objective of the upward flag formation of the previous two weeks, just above 1,1700, and needs more reasons to upload more. Today, all eyes are put in the US PCE price index, which will probably determine the short -term address of the torque. Until that time, an additional lateral trade is expected.
At the bottom, the torque is finding support in the minimum intradication of 1,1680 before the previous resistance, now a potential support area in 1,1630-1,1640 (maximum of June 24 and 25).
The immediate resistance is at the maximum of Thursday of 1,1745 and, above here, the Extension of Fibonacci of 161.8% of the rally from June 10 to 12 in 1,1795.
Euro Faqs
The euro is the currency of the 19 countries of the European Union that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most negotiated currency in the world, behind the US dollar. In 2022, it represented 31 % of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily business volume of more than 2.2 billion dollars a day. The EUR/USD is the most negotiated currency pair in the world, with an estimate of 30 %of all transactions, followed by the EUR/JPY (4 %), the EUR/GBP (3 %) and the EUR/AU (2 %).
The European Central Bank (ECB), based in Frankfurt (Germany), is the Eurozone reserve bank. The ECB establishes interest rates and manages monetary policy. The main mandate of the ECB is to maintain price stability, which means controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its main tool is the rise or decrease in interest rates. Relatively high interest rates (or the expectation of higher types) usually benefit the euro and vice versa. The GOVERNMENT BOOK of the ECB makes decisions about monetary policy in meetings that are held eight times a year. The decisions are made by the directors of the National Banks of the Eurozone and six permanent members, including the president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the harmonized consumer prices index (IPCA), are an important economic indicator for the euro. If inflation increases more than expected, especially if it exceeds 2% of the ECB, it forces the ECB to rise interest rates to control it again. Relatively high interest rates compared to their counterparts usually benefit the euro, since they make the region more attractive as a place for global investors to deposit their money.
Published data measure the health of the economy and can have an impact on the euro. Indicators such as GDP, manufacturing and services PMIs, employment and consumer trust surveys can influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the euro. Not only attracts more foreign investment, but it can encourage the ECB to raise interest rates, which will directly strengthen the euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the euro is likely to fall. The economic data of the four largest economies in the euro zone (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, since they represent 75% of the economy of the euro area.
Another important fact that is published on the euro is the commercial balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns with its exports and what you spend on imports during a given period. If a country produces highly demanded export products, its currency will gain value simply by the additional demand created by foreign buyers seeking to buy those goods. Therefore, a positive net trade balance strengthens a currency and vice versa in the case of a negative balance
Source: Fx Street

I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.