- The euro remains stable near the maximums while investors observe from the band line before the NFP report.
- Disappointing ADP employment data increased the hopes of a Fed rate cuts and limited the recovery of the US dollar on Wednesday.
- A commercial agreement between the US and Vietnam increased optimism and added weight to the USD as a safe refuge.
The Eur/USD It is practically flat on Thursday, quoting just below 1,1800 at the time of writing, not far from the maximum of several years reached earlier this week. The appetite of investors for risk is fading as optimism on the US agreement with Vietnam gives way to caution before publication of data from data from Non -agricultural payrolls (NFP) of the USA
In the EUROZONAJune services activity was reviewed at 50.5 from the previously estimated reading of 50.0. These figures reveal that the sector grew again last month, after a slight contraction in May. However, the impact of data on the euro has been minimal.
On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump announced a commercial agreement with Vietnam, which increased hopes that more agreements of this type could be reached before the deadline of July 9. The US dollar (USD) lost ground compared to its main peers before recovering, since other Asian countries complain about the complex tariff negotiations with the US.
Beyond that, Trump continued with his attacks on the president of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell. The US president asked Powell to “immediately renounce” in the last episode of an unprecedented attack on a Fed Chief who doubts the independence of the Central Bank and erodes the status of the US dollar as a reserve currency.
The climax this Thursday is the figures of Non -agricultural payrolls of the US, which have advanced one day this month due to the feast of Independence Day in the US on Friday. Payroll data will attract a particular interest, after an unexpected fall in the ADP employment report on Wednesday. The risk is biased down the US dollar, since a disappointing reading could virtually confirm an interest rate cut of the Fed in the coming months.
Euro price today
The lower table shows the percentage of euro change (EUR) compared to the main currencies today. Euro was the strongest currency against the New Zealand dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.06% | -0.10% | 0.09% | -0.00% | 0.11% | 0.31% | 0.19% | |
| EUR | -0.06% | -0.17% | 0.05% | -0.06% | 0.05% | 0.22% | 0.16% | |
| GBP | 0.10% | 0.17% | 0.20% | 0.13% | 0.21% | 0.37% | 0.13% | |
| JPY | -0.09% | -0.05% | -0.20% | -0.08% | 0.03% | 0.16% | -0.00% | |
| CAD | 0.00% | 0.06% | -0.13% | 0.08% | 0.11% | 0.27% | 0.23% | |
| Aud | -0.11% | -0.05% | -0.21% | -0.03% | -0.11% | -0.00% | -0.07% | |
| NZD | -0.31% | -0.22% | -0.37% | -0.16% | -0.27% | 0.00% | -0.25% | |
| CHF | -0.19% | -0.16% | -0.13% | 0.00% | -0.23% | 0.07% | 0.25% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the main currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the contribution currency is selected in the upper row. For example, if you choose the euro of the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage change shown in the box will represent the EUR (base)/USD (quotation).
What moves the market today: greater hopes of feat cuts of the Fed keep the US dollar increases limited
- The ADP employment report showed a 33K drop in private payrolls in June, compared to market expectations of a 95K increase. The June reading presents the first contraction from the pandemic and has increased the interest of investors in the NFP report, which will be published at 12:30 GMT, and will be read from a monetary policy perspective.
- The ADP reading of Wednesday increased the bets for feat cuts of the Fed in the next two months. Future markets now value 25% of the possibility of a cut in July, compared to 20% before the report, while the probabilities of at least one cut of 25 basic points (PB) in September have increased to 96% from 90%, according to the data of the Fed Watch tool of the CME Group.
- Market consensus anticipates a 110K increase in non -agricultural payrolls in June, after an increase of 139K in May. The unemployment rate is expected to have increased to 4.3% from 4.2%, with an average annual average income growth of 3.9%, without changes compared to the previous month.
- Later, the ISM services of the US ISM is expected to show that the activity of the sector returned to growth levels in June, with a 50.5 reading after a slight contraction of 49.9 in May.
EUR/USD consolidates profits near the maximums of 1,1830
The EUR/USD is going through consolidation, having risen more than 2% in a 10 -day rally, reaching its highest levels in almost four years in 1,1830. The torque has failed to find significant acceptance above 1,1800, but so far, it remains stable near the maximums with the US dollar defensively.
The 4 -hour graph sample That the upward trend remains intact, with the relative force index (RSI) of 14 periods above level 50. Immediate support is at the minimum of Wednesday, in 1,1745. Below, the area between the minimum of June 27 in 1,1680 and the minimum of June 26 in 1,1650 offers significant support for a bassist correction.
On the positive side, the immediate resistance is at the maximum of Wednesday of 1,1810, ahead of the maximum of June 1 in 1,1830. Above here, the Fibonacci extension level of 127.2% of the reversal of July 1-2 is 1,1850.
Economic indicator
Non -agricultural payrolls
The most important result contained in the report on the employment situation is the monthly change in non -agricultural payrolls published by the US Department of Labor. The report publishes the employment creation estimates of the previous month and reviews in the data of the previous two months. Monthly changes in payrolls can be very volatile and the publication of this report generates high volatility in the dollar. A result superior to the market consensus is bullish for the dollar, while a result lower than expectations is bassist.
Read more.
Last publication:
Old Jun 06, 2025 12:30
Frequency:
Monthly
Current:
139K
Dear:
130K
Previous:
177K
Fountain:
US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The United States Monthly Employment Report is considered the most important economic indicator for foreign exchange operators. Published the first Friday following the informed month, the change in the number of employees is closely related to the general performance of the economy and is monitored by those responsible for the formulation of policies. Full employment is one of the mandates of the Federal Reserve and considers the evolution of the labor market by establishing its policies, which affects the currencies. Despite several advanced indicators that shape estimates, non -agricultural payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. The real figures that exceed consensus tend to be bulls for the USD.
Economic indicator
Unemployment rate
The unemployment rate published by the US Department of Labor It corresponds to the number of unemployed workers divided among the economically active population. If the rate grows, this indicates the absence of growth of economic activity in the United States. A result superior to what is expected is bassist for the dollar, while a result less than consensus is upward.
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Economic indicator
Average income for hours (yoy)
This data is published by the US Department of Labor and it is an indicator of the inflation of the cost of work and the situation of the labor market. The Federal Reserve Committee pays close attention to this result when making the decision on interest rates. A result higher than expected is bullish for the dollar, while a result less than consensus is bassist.
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Next publication:
JU JUL 03, 2025 12:30
Frequency:
Monthly
Dear:
3.9%
Previous:
3.9%
Fountain:
US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
