- Euro bounces from lows in one week but loses moment above 1.2100.
- EUR / USD maintains a short-term downward bias, continuing correction from highs in years.
- Ahead: ECB decision and US inflation and unemployment benefit data
The EUR / USD is rising modestly and maintaining the tone of the last few sessions, trading with limited travel. The price is recovering after hitting lows in a week on Wednesday at 1.2057 and trading at 1.2090, after failing to consolidate above 1.2100.
Financial markets continue to operate with low volatility so far this Thursday. Regarding the EUR / USD, the focus is now on the decision of the European Central Bank. An increase in the amount and duration of the purchase program is expected to be announced, as well as better conditions on long-term loans (TLTRO). New framework economic projections will be presented. Both the announcement at 12:45 GMT and the subsequent press conference by Christine Lagarde, the president of the ECB, at 13:30 GMT are expected to generate volatility in the euro.
In Europe, there is still no agreement on Brexit. It is developing in Brussels the summit of European leaders where it is estimated that they will not talk about Brexit and will discuss, among other issues, the budget and the recovery fund.
The economic calendar also shows US data for the next few hours.. The weekly report of unemployment benefits and retail inflation is highlighted, which will be known when Lagarde’s conference begins. Another key event to watch in the US is the negotiations for more fiscal stimulus. An agreement for about 900,000 million could be reached in a week and a half.
Technical overview
EUR / USD fell to 1.2058 on Wednesday, hitting 1.2108 today. Despite the rebound, the very short-term bias continues to point to a continuation of the downward correction. Around 1.2110, where the 20 moving average is passing in four hours, there is the first firm resistance and then 1.2135 / 40 appears above it, an uptrend line that if broken would point to the end of the correction.
In the opposite direction, below 1.2075, the dollar would aim to test the floor on Wednesday. The next supports are seen at 1.2035 and then 1.1995.
Technical levels
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