- EUR/USD is trading firmer near 1.0985 in early Tuesday’s European session.
- ECB policymakers continue to lay the groundwork for a more flexible policy stance.
- Traders reject bets on aggressive Fed rate cuts at November meeting.
The EUR/USD pair extends its recovery to around 1.0985 on Tuesday during early European trading hours. The major pair rises slightly amid modest weakening of the US Dollar (USD). However, EUR/USD’s upside could be limited as traders expect a smaller interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in November.
The head of the French Central Bank, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, said on Tuesday that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates next week, as economic growth is weak and this increases the risk that inflation will not reach your 2% target. The comments support the market valuation for another 150 bps of ECB rate cuts over the next twelve months.
The ECB’s Isabel Schnabel will speak later on Tuesday, and industrial production in Germany will be published. Dovish comments from ECB policymakers or any signs of weakness in Europe’s largest economy could drag the Euro (EUR) lower against the Dollar.
Turning to the USD, Friday’s encouraging US jobs data raised expectations that the Fed will cut 25 basis points (bps) at the central bank’s November meeting. This, in turn, could broadly boost the US Dollar (USD) and could limit the upside of EUR/USD. The odds of a 25 bp Fed rate cut stand at 85%, up from 31.1% last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency of the 20 countries of the European Union that belong to the euro zone. It is the second most traded currency in the world, behind the US dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily volume of more than $2.2 trillion per day. EUR/USD is the most traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% of all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2% ).
The European Central Bank (ECB), headquartered in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank of the euro zone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy The ECB’s main mandate is to maintain price stability, which means controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its main instrument is to raise or lower interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – tend to benefit the Euro and vice versa. The Governing Council of the ECB takes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by the heads of the eurozone’s national banks and six permanent members, including ECB President Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), are an important econometric data for the euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if it exceeds the 2% target set by the ECB, it is forced to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to their peers tend to benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases measure the health of the economy and can influence the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, manufacturing and services PMIs, employment and consumer sentiment surveys can influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment, but it may encourage the ECB to raise interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Conversely, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. The economic data for the four largest economies in the eurozone (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they represent 75% of the eurozone economy.
Another important release for the euro is the trade balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports during a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after export products, its currency will appreciate due to the additional demand created by foreign buyers wishing to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net trade balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.